New trading opportunities in global index ETF’s

September 15, 2023No Comments


Hello and welcome once again to the Smart Money Dumb Money Show. And I’m your host as usual, Keith Richards. I’m president and chief portfolio manager at Value Trend and I’m also a technical analyst. And today we’re going to get pretty intense by going through a whole whack of charts. Today I’m doing something that I do probably about once a month or so. I have various lists of stocks and sectors and things I like to go through. I look at currencies, I look at different factors that I’m searching through. But one of the other things I liked looking at is the world indices. And I’ve got a pretty good list and I was ripping through that list this morning and found some pretty interesting stuff. Like normally I don’t find as many interesting ideas off of the world, ETFs, indices-type products, but I found a whole bunch of interesting trades that I thought you guys might be interested in.

Now I’m only in one or two of them at this moment. In fact, one of them I’m in, I didn’t put on the list because it’s too close to the top of a range right now, which is good news for me, but not for new buyers. So I tried to isolate ideas for you guys that were maybe a little bit more timely and one of which I do actually own right now for that trade. So let’s get started. I’m going to share the screen. There are a lot of charts we’re going to go through. And so I’ve actually divided it into two lists. So this is list number one, which is stocks, or I should say indices that have maybe a bit more of a positive-looking general trend for more than just a quick trade. So there are four or five charts that I’ve picked out of the group that look good.

So I didn’t draw my lines over this. I just wanted to give you the big picture here. And you’ll see that this is the first one of the group. It’s Italy Cap, D T F. These are for the most part iShares that we’re looking at. And you’ll see there was an old lid back in 21. In fact, it was pretty strong resistance and that would’ve been a period of time. Of course, you would’ve traded this stock buying near the bottom, selling off the top, breaking down, and breaking up seems to have passed. It’s that lid. And what’s interesting is broke through that old lid, which is very bullish and it’s come back and tested pretty close to exactly at that lid, which is around 31 and a half dollars or so. It’s sitting at 32. It looks like it’s bouncing off. So not only is this a possible good entry point to buy the Italian exchange,

But may be on a trend I should say. But it’s also maybe a good indicator that this lid will hold. And there’s lots and lots of upside. Italy of course elected a new conservative prime minister and that’s good news. I think a lot of us, including myself are pretty, Susan Chong once said, sick up and fed with the more socialist regimes that have propagated through the world and it’s not exactly helped our economy. So it’s good to see some progress in that area and sorry for getting political, but just tell it as I seize it. So Italy is making progress and they’ve often been known as a more socialist country, as have many of the figs, Portugal, Hungary, Spain, Greece, all that stuff. So it’s good to see some progress in that area and the stock chart is showing you that progress. Now, another one I like is France.

And you can see the old lid from 21 was broken and it’s moved into a consolidation pattern. But still, because it broke that old lid, it wouldn’t surprise me if eventually, that consolidation pattern broke out. In the meantime, you know where to buy it. You buy it near the 200 days. And by the way, I should point out that most of these charts, they’re finding support at their old 200-day, which in this case is the red line. 40 weeks is the same as 200 days. So it could be a short-term trade for somebody, but if it did break this, it could be very clear skies ahead, lots of upside. So that’s another one to consider. This is a chart that has tons of upside. Of course, everybody’s worried about Taiwan with the possibility of China moving into their soil as has been the talk.

But so far so good it hasn’t happened. And you’re seeing support for the 200 days. You’re seeing a bit of an uptrend. It looked like it was gapping down, but it does look like it’s trying to fill. So if that market does move off a little bit higher, it might be a good trade for those who have a little bit of risk tolerance because beyond this one piece of resistance, which is where it stopped here, around $49, if it could make it to that, and that wouldn’t be a bad trade as it is from around 46 where it is right now to the 49. But if it could move higher than that, then you could get to the old highs. So there’s good potential on this chart. Lots of risk. Just keep that in mind. Okay, so Mexico, this is probably the one chart of the world indices that I’m looking at.

And by the way, we’re not going to include the North American markets on this look, but this is the one that is the most defined uptrend and it’s pulling to the bottom of that uptrend line. And so it’s probably a good buying point for those who want to buy a very secure uptrend. And of course, if it breaks the uptrend line, then you sell it, but it’s well above. It’s 200 A and it looks pretty good. Okay, I think this is the final chart in the group, which is South Korea. And South Korea is doing very well. I mean it’s a choppy chart, but it again looks like it came down to the bottom of a bit of a trend line. It did gap there. So there’s something to keep in mind, but it broke briefly the 200 days. But my rule of three, you need three bars to break through.

It didn’t last for three days. Seems to be above the 200-day one to watch. I don’t know if I jump on it right away, I’d want a little bit more proof before I bought it, but this E T F could get to 67 from this 62 where it is right now, probably so long as you get another week or so of holding the 200 a. And it’s got tons and tons of upside. It really has a lot of upside. It’s got its own set of risks. But I think that this is one of those charts that I would really favor for a risk-orientated portfolio. I think that’s the last chart in my, yeah, we already covered Italy. So now I’m going to go to another chart list and my chart lists, and you’ll see I did video two here because these are charts that maybe aren’t as bullish looking for a longer-term place.

So a lot of those charts we just looked at maybe had some longer-term upsides, so long as various levels of resistance were cracked. These are more sideways trading-orientated ETFs that we’re looking at here. So we’ll start with Austria, Australia, I believe it is, yeah, Australia. And you can see there’s a kind of a sideways lid. We’ve got a lid somewhere around 24 bucks and you’ve got a pretty decent support area. I mean there was that pullbacker in the 2022 Lowe’s in October that basically everything pulled back. But the general floor on this is around 21. The general ceiling on this is 24, not a bad trade. That’s not quite 20%, but maybe a 15% trade. And it does look like it’s bouncing off. You can see how close that came in. It bounced off quite nicely. So that’s not a bad looking trade.

Again, probably not a long-term hold. None of these that I’m going to show you on the next few minutes are what I would call long-term trades. They’re just in and out. I’ve written a book called Sideways and I often talk about sideways markets and it’s because I like these trades and you’ll see that I’m looking for them even in the value trend portfolio, we’re often trading these because they’re pretty defined. And this is another example of Sweden. The reason I like sideways box or rectangular or whatever range-bound type of verbiage you like to describe them with is because you’ve got to define stuff. So with Sweden, support is around 32, just above it. If you see this ETF break 32, you should get out. It could do this again, right? So you’re right near that point, you’re bounced off of 32, which is what you want to see, 33 bucks, maybe wait a little bit, but so long as it holds, then you probably got $37.

Pretty good trade, not bad. Well over 10%, maybe 15% again. So hey, and by the way, if it broke that $37, then there’s tons of upside ahead of that. So again, an interesting trade I think from a couple of different perspectives. Something that I think near-term midterm traders should definitely be taking a look at is some of these ideas. Germany. Now I will disclose we own this one. So same idea though. Short-term trade could go up to 29 and a half if that breaks. It’s got lots of upside maybe back to the thirties. So these are the kinds of trades we at value trends sometimes favor, and this actually happens to be one that we own in the portfolio.

Same thing with Belgium. Not quite near the bottom, but that’s actually not a bad thing. It’s holding its 200 days and it is looking like it’ll probably bounce back to 19, maybe not so much upside, but again, remember if that neckline around $19 breaks, then you’ve got lots of air or ahead of you before it hits the old lid. So this could be another one of those interesting prospects. I’m giving you tons of ideas here and you’re really going to have to sift through them yourself to determine if you like them. I’m not showing you any of the indicators that I would look at normally, the momentum, the money flow stuff, you should be looking at that stuff. If you go into the final stages of making a decision on buying any of these indices, I’m just kind of giving the ideas to you, and then you can flip through them on your own and decide which ones actually make the most sense.

So the next one is Switzerland, home of chocolate and other fine things. And this is very much a chart that you only want to trade because there’s a lot of noise ahead. Going way back to 21, I think your upside is limited, but it’s coming right off of it. Look at how crisp some of these support areas on these charts are. And this is no exception, like exactly near the 200 day and exactly around that $45 area that likes to bounce off and it goes to maybe 48. So good trade, a good opportunity for short-term, nimble people. Alright, this one is maybe a little bit more aggressive because you can see it’s below the 200-day, which often happens by the way, in longer consolidation periods. And this has been going sideways really since the beginning of 22. Now, interesting, after the 22 crash, it moves very nicely into this pattern, but it seems to, Singapore has been moving kind of from 18 to about 20, not a huge return, 10% or so, but nimble short-term type traders, not a bad looking chart.

So long as that $18 holds, okay, United Kingdom, jolly, old England and Scotland, this is another one with a big lid on it. It’s really got around $33 as a target, maybe a bit higher, but not much higher support levels around 31. Again, one of these tight trading range things. You’re not going to make a lot of money, but it might be an easy trade. So again, depending on the style of investor or trader you are, this is one you could look at for just a short-term blip. I do not feel that it’s going to make it through that 33, 33, and a half area for some time.

And we are back in Australia. So let’s just finish up and say that I’ve given you some ideas today. Again, this was my own work. I flip through these charts. You can create chart lists on stock charts or whatever service you like to use. And you can do this yourself. You can rip through them. And if you’ve taken my course, and I really urge that you take our technical analysis course, it’s dirt cheap for what you get out of it. It’s literally my life’s work for 400 bucks or less. I think it’s 390 bucks or something. You’re not going to get that kind of instruction anywhere else. And I really encourage people to take the course if you haven’t because then a lot of what I’ve shown you is going to make more sense and you’ll be able to do more of it yourself because you’ll learn how to do things like have lists and flip through them and what to look for and how to work from the top down making these decisions. So I do hope that if you’ve not taken the technical analysis course, it’s on the website, then I hope you have the opportunity to take it. So again, thanks for watching and we will see you next week. And I hope this gave you lots and lots of ideas for you to rifle through and maybe find a couple of good ones. See you next week.

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