Big Pink returns – International investing ideas

February 11, 2022No Comments


Well, hello and welcome to the Smart Money Dumb Money show. And I am your host, as usual, Keith Richards, president and chief portfolio manager at ValueTrend Wealth Management. And some of you who’ve been watching these videos for a while might remember about a year ago. I think it was actually around February or March of 2021. I wore this exact shirt with the exact bow tie and they’re both pink as you can see, and you couldn’t find that video. I called it Big Pink and the joke behind it is that my wife always says to me, don’t wear the same colour with the bow tie and the shirt. So I break her rule and I call it my, you know, one rebellion in our marriage is that sometimes I wear the same colour with the same shirt. Such a radical rebel I am. Anyhow, I wanted today to talk about some international charts and this is something I do once in a while.

And I think you’ll find it of interest because I’m doing some work for you. That’s cuz I’m a good guy. And what I’ve done is I’ve literally taken every world spider ETF chart. So every index of a country that they have, and I went through them all and I didn’t count them, but there’s plenty. There are probably about 20 or so. And I narrowed it down to, well, let me just see 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. So I’ve narrowed it down to six. I wrote ’em down a piece of paper there. But I’m going to display the charts for you when I share the screen. And we’re going to rip through each one of the six charts and why I like them. And there are things for us to explore, to take a look at and see if we do like the background, the fundamentals behind that country’s production and economy and that kind of thing.

So let’s get started. We’re just gonna be taking, as I said, a view of the charts only, and you have to do a little bit of work on your own after I show you these. So we’re going to start with Hong Kong and this is actually a formation that I love because what you’re seeing is a base and what looks to be the very beginning of a breakout. Now this would be the neckline somewhere around, let’s call it 24 bucks or so. And it’s at 24 and a half right now. So it’s just on the verge of breaking out. It’s still below the 200 days, 40-week moving average but you’ll notice that there has been, even when the market was declining there was positive money flow. And this is one of the things I talk about in my course, if you have not signed up for my course, I recommend you do it.

It’s pretty cheap. I made it cheap purposely. And I talk about why I prefer money flow indicators like the accumulation distribution line over volume. So you can see that money flow was moving into this particular ETF. So that’s an interesting, very early sign of a breakout. You wanna maybe give it another week or so before you buy, but it’s probably an interesting one to put on your watch list. So the next one we’re gonna look at is Switzerland ya, and I’m terrible with accents. So forgive me. What I’m going to do is I’m gonna have to shrink these charts cuz they’re all default at 1600 and it doesn’t show up on the video. So my apologies for having to do this each time, but what I’m seeing on the Switzerland chart is a little bit different pattern. You’re looking at an uptrend that has generally been supported by the 200 days.

Now the danger here is that the market did break the 200-day moving average, but it didn’t really take out the last important low. It did sort of take out the last minor low, but the last important low was most definitely not taken out. So it’s one to watch. Would I buy it? No, because I would like it to stay above the minor low, which was around $49. And it’s just struggling with that right now. And I would like to see it go above the 200-day moving average to be a really strong, confirmed buy, but it’s definitely one to watch because this uptrend has been in place for a while. And as we know, sometimes charts break the 200 days moving average and then move on. So we have to be cognizant of that possibility. It’s one to put on your buy, sorry, watch list.

Not your buy list just yet, but I thought it’s a pretty interesting chart. So again, my apologies cuz every time I do this, I have to switch this over to a 1280 view so it fits on the screen. So here we go. This is Austria, where Arnold Schwarzenegger was born. One of my personal heroes, Arnold Schwarzenegger, for many reasons, is a great athlete and a great businessman and just a great thinker. So very motivational person and Arnold’s former country seems to have been consolidating for the better part of 2021. And it does appear like it’s breaking out. So this is a very interesting chart and again, give it another week or so, but it really does look like a very promising, ETF to buy into. So, again, every time I’m going to have to shrink these darn things and there we go, okay, here it is.

So this is Singapore and Singapore is most definitely breaking out. There is a decline. There is the base and there is the breakout. That does look like a break above the 200 days moving average. So it’s probably going to face some noise in and around this level, which let’s call it 22 and a half. I think if it breaks 22 and a half. And it’s just on the verge of trying to do that right now, this market could take off. So it’s one to watch. It’s not one to get too excited about yet, but I do think it’s an interesting one to keep your eye on. So once again, we’re going to shrink this chart and there it is down to 1280 update. Okay. So this looks like one of the charts we just looked at where we got a base and a breakout and that breakout was tested right here.

So that’s the neckline resistance level that was in the cluster, broke out and that became support. It was tested successfully. So this is the United Kingdom. And I think this is a very bullish looking chart and this is definitely one that will qualify under my rules for buying. And of course, the accumulation distribution line does support it. All right. Now, a little bit of disclosure, we own this one and I’ll talk you through this before I, while I adjust the size. It’s the Brazil chart. Now very, very volatile market, this market. They’ve had political stuff but they’re also a major commodity producer. And if you’ve been reading anything on my blogs or been watching these videos, you know that I am a major believer in the commodity bull market. I’ve been pounding the table on commodity since 2020, ValueTrend was very early in that trade.

We’ve literally outperformed the market. You can go to our website and go underperformance and we’ve outperformed the market consistently because of that kind of rotation. And we rotated very early. We are contrarian investors. We use different methods such as those discussed. On my last video we used sentiment and sentiment was very depressed in 2020, as the charts broke out and as sentiment began coming off of depressed levels, we started to buy oil to start with, and then we very quickly bought into the metals and Australia, sorry, Brazil is actually a major producer of these commodities. They have a big company. I think it’s the biggest company in their index, Petrobras. And they also have, I forget the name of it, but it’s another big metals miner. So they’re definitely one to trade.

This is not one to buy and hold, but you can see that it’s fallen to the bottom of what looks to be a former support level zone. And it looks like it may be heading back up to the top of that zone. Pretty good trade. So for those who don’t mind a very volatile position, it’s probably not a bad trade. We do own, again, I disclose we own this particular ETF. So, I don’t believe we covered Hong Kong. So sometimes I go in a circle here because these charts are listed. I create a little list for you but this is one, though I don’t think I covered this is Hong Kong. And it is on, actually, I did. I covered it at the beginning of this video, my apologies. So this is in the process of attempting to break out.

And if it does break the neckline, then I think this chart could be extremely bullish. So that could be a very exciting trade. So there you have it. That’s about half a dozen international stock charts. My apologies for fiddling around with the frame sizing it just seems to default that way when I do a video, but you get the message and those are some international markets that you should be paying attention to. Not all of them are outright buys. Perhaps the UK is the closest to an outright buy on that group, but many of them are in the early stages of basing and trying to break out or potentially in a base with potential for breaking out. These are watch candidates, but you don’t want to be just buying things that are going up in a straight line. It’s good to have trend-following investments, but it’s nice to catch those when they break out because you’ve seen, for example, with the metals and whatnot over the past year, when something breaks out, it can break out hard. So these are candidates for you to keep on your watch list. I hope that helps. And again, I would encourage you to take advantage of our online technical analysis course. You can go to the ValueTrend website and you scroll down. There’s a button that brings you to the website and learns about viewing charts like this with the same ideas that I use when I’m looking for stock and ETF candidates. Thanks for watching and happy trading

 

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