USD oversold

The chart below shows us that the USD, as compared to a basket of world currencies, is near long termed support and its 200 day MA.  Momentum is signalling oversold in a significant way.

US Dollar USD showing oversold conditions and major support level

 

 

Sentimentrader.com shows us that commercial hedgers are overly bearish via their hedge positions.

USD Oversold: US Dollar USD hedgers position chart showing commercial hedgers are overly bearish - leading to oversold conditions

 

This is almost the EXACT level of hedging that the CDN dollar was at before it  reversed to the upside.

 

USD Oversold: Canadian Dollar (CAD) Hedgers Position chart showing CAD hedging peaked at the Loonie's lowest price point

Further evidence that the USD is a contrarians setup is the bearish public confidence view, as seen in the sentimentrader optix. This is a consensus report compiling a bunch of investor behaviour surveys such as Market Vane, Bloomberg, Ned Davis, Larry Williams and Consensus inc. When these survey companies show, on the whole, that the public is bearish on something, its time to buy. Nobody likes the greenback right now. It’s almost over the “extreme” line provided by sentimentrader.com

USD Oversold: US Dollar USD Optix chart showing bearish public confidence reach excessive levels - a contrarian setup suggesting its time to buy

The only thing going against the USD rallying from current levels is seasonality–which can be a bit soft during the second half of the year – or at least into the fall. The best (most predictable) time to hold the USD is from January until early summer – per the equityclock.com chart below.

USD Oversold: US Dollar USD Index Futures Seasonality chart - the picture is not favourable from a seasonal perspective

Seasonal patterns aside – most indicators and sentiment studies I have studied is screaming “oversold buying opportunity” on the USD. The only thing missing is a sideways choppy looking base from current support levels on the chart. Should the USD tread water for a month or two–look for a pop. A sideways pattern after a significant decline means a base has formed. The indications are suggesting a decent probability that  the USD may be very near the end of its weakness.The next steps will be a base, then a breakout.

Sooner or later, it will be time to back up the truck and load it up with greenbacks. You have been forewarned!

Keith on BNN

I’m on tonight at 5:30 – 6:30 pm for the call-in show, MarketCall. Hope you can catch it.Phone in with your questions on technical analysis during the show. CALL TOLL-FREE 1-855-326-6266

2 Comments

  • Thanks Keith – love your articles especially as of late keeping us updated on the markets. I’ve read that when something hits a support or resistance several times – expect it to go through after a few times.

    It seems the USD has hit the 200ma support a few times already – is it possible it goes through during this seasonally weak time and then perhaps bounces up later this year? I believe there’s also sometimes a correlation with gold. So is the USD slices through the 200ma – gold goes up in Aug as per its seasonal strong period and then comes down late this fall as USD rises?

    Reply
    • It could certainly go through Jim, but I believe it wont last too long if as when it does. your parameters re the seasonal pattern might make sense in such a case.

      Reply

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