Thanks to those who responded re the “Ask me” format. Seems that the blog format won – vs a video or webinar.
So…This is your chance to ask questions on the subject of investing, sector outlook, risk management, portfolio management and of course… Technical Analysis. Craig Aucoin, resident Fundamental Analyst of ValueTrend is ready to cover any “nuts n bolts” questions from his area of expertise. So this is actually an “Ask us Anything” blog.
To ask a question, you need to post it on the comment section of this blog by midnight Sunday March 26th.
For those who haven’t followed this blog for long – here are the ground rules for the “Ask me” blogs:
- Investment questions should be of broad interest to many investors. They can involve broad-sector questions, questions about various international markets, or questions about individual commodities or bonds.
- Please don’t ask about individual stocks. The exception might be in massively followed mega-cap stocks like the FAANG’s. Better to ask about stock sectors, world markets, asset classes, commodities, etc. For example: Cannabis, gold, European markets, the utilities sector, the tech sector, oil, transports, long bonds, etc. Lets say you are interested in the banks. Ask about the US banking sector rather than my opinion on Bank America. Or you might just have questions on technical/fundamental analysis rules, or unique strategies like hedging or stop loss rules, etc.
- You can ask as simple a question as you wish. And don’t worry – there’s no such thing as a dumb question! But feel free to ask the hard stuff too! I’ll do my best to get as many questions covered as I can. One question per reader, only.
- Questions on technical analysis methods and contrarian investing are very welcome.
- If you wish to ask a fundamental analysis question, feel free to post it. Craig Aucoin, CFA, will add his answers to the mix.
how high could gold go please
If a Canadian bank were to fail and I had, say $1,000,000 invested in stocks and ETFs in an account on that bank’s online broker, would those investments be affected and how would I go about accessing any leftover value?
I usually listen to the morning news on CBC before checking the NA stock indices. There has been disturbing news about banks on the morning news lately which I think would make investors nervous. However, the major indices (DJI, TSX Comp etc) seem to been moving up.
Why are investors not nervous or concerned about what is happening in the banks?
In the absence of hammer/ hanging man candles, do you use the relative length of upper to lower wicks as an indicator of possible price reversal? I\ve noticed that sometimes a reversal is preceded by a series of longer wicks in the direction away from the reversal. Eg, 3 days of price being relatively stable but with upper wicks significantly longer than lower wicks, followed by a price move down. None of the 3 candles look like hammers / hanging men. Is this a thing? And if so, how important is this?
Can I get your thoughts on options trading – do you use them? Do you think it is a good idea for retail investors to use options , particularly “covered calls”?
Hi Keith, I split half of my portfolio in usd dollars last week but price was quite high, 1.3801 usd.cad.
Is it a good strategy to hedge against currency risk or the price I paid the dollar is so high my net liq value is at risk.
If yes , do you recommend I hedge my us position (bil) and which product would you choose.
My bias was usd would go higher but its retracing now, so is my portfolio…
How do you and/or other TAs decide that a Trend reversal has taken/is taking place? Is it based on top down Sector then stock analysis? Or it based purely in TA, Trend lines, Oscillators and such?
In 2023, are there any worthwhile flow through share investments, that have minimal risk of loss of principal? What is your general opinion of this? Are they found only on oil patch exploration. gold prospects?
On fintwit, and even many analysts on TV, I am seeing a very large number (perhaps vast majority if just going by fintwit) a massive selloff in the S+P with targets of 3200 and lower by end of year. I wonder if in the history of markets the majority has ever been able to see a market crash coming like the one most seem to be predicting now? I see tons of TA charts on fintwits from people with very large number of followers explaining why based on TA (including some Hurst cycle analysts and elliott wave analysts) the S+P is headed to minimum 3200 by end of 2023 and perhaps much lower into 2024. Does the market ever make it so obvious and easy for the masses?
Thanks for your take,
I would like to know how Valuetrend invests its client’s money. Are you a value investor or Growth investor? How do you make your choice of stocks to invest in?
Also what are the important factors you look at when doing fundamental analysis?
I was wondering what your advice is for a “buy & hold” investor who is thinking about buying
into the pipeline utility sector (TransCanada Pipe, Enbridge, Keyers, etc) right now? buy, wait, don’t buy at all?
Thanks to your course (and continued feedback on the blog), readers have access to a fair amount of the technical tools & approach you use in your decision-making.
But on the fundamental side, you often mention only making decisions after consultation with Craig Aucoin. Since the majority don’t have access to (nor the knowledge of) a superhuman fundamentalist, is there a basic checklist of the most important indicators your readers could use? A “poor man’s Craiglist” of fundamentals, if you will.
Around Nov, 2020, Bank of Nova Scotia Gapped up on a weekly basis at around $55 Canadian. On a technical basis, will this Gapped up price have to be covered before it is safe to buy for the Long Term .
When setting a support line based on a last low for a stop loss decision, if that last low was a hammer candle pattern, do you use the close price or the the real low of that bar? Is it different if you are looking at daily vs weekly chart?
For example, S&P on Oct 10th week (weekly chart) closed around 3585 but went as low as 3494. What level is considered a break of support and that you start counting days?
What are your thoughts on the uranium commodity in the near term.
When charting long term trend charts I find that the 2020 low and the 2021 highs distort the chart. Is it wise to draw the lines ignoring those highs and lows. Using IWM as an example I get a nice long term trend resulting in a current range of $172 to $198 if I ignore the extremes. With the highs and lows in it looks like $100 to $250. This is typical of a lot of charts. Is the alternative to just use straight five year range lines or go to a one year chart?
Hi Keith, where are we on the sentiment curve you talk about in your course?
Denial, pessimism, unease? Also if you would, how do you determine to sell if a stock or etf you buy even with all your best research turns against you almost immediately? Three days, a percentage, chart breakdown?
Hi Keith, how do you see the U.S./CDN markets reacting if the next President of the U.S. is a Democrat vs a Republican?
If you look at UUP over a long term period – is it breaking out or breaking down ?!? What does a high US$ presage? Is it surprising that it is high while Gold is also high ?
What do you make of the current Tech rally?
Daily chart looks good but, fundamental is weak…
Hi, Keith. When looking at stocks in a sideways pattern, do you still wait for three advancing soldiers to buy or would you not wait and simply buy when the price goes back down to that established patter or support?
While we wait for the most telegraphed recession in history and many investors reducing their stock portfolios for save money market funds and selling their good stable dividend paying stocks in the meantime, is there now an opportunity to take a contrarian view in some stocks in the utilities, reits and even the financial sectors that pay excellently dividends and are hovering near 52 week lows?
I have some significant liquid assets outside of my “investment” account that I use to buffer in case my long term investments (I use for my monthly allowance) are below a desired level. Allows me to sleep at night. So my question is:
During the rest of 2023 do you expect “opportunities ” in some safer Cdn investments (Telcoc’s, pipelines, utilities, other?) to arise that makes sense to move from liquid assets to safe/defensive equities.
Sectors to comment on please:
Banks- Craigs comments on fundamentals- risks that could affect this sector?
Utilities- over a 2 year horizon, will this sector be a leader/advance, equal to TSX, or a laggard?
Airlines- same question as utilities
What is High Yield Spread and how can it be purchased? I was reading David Rosenberg’s Breakfast with Dave (October 25 2022) and he pointed out that during slow growth and high inflation this asset class historical performance is 221 bps (what is bps?)