I use the term “tender loving treasuries” to help me remember the stock symbol for the iShares 20+ year US treasury bond ETF (TLT-US). Work done by my friend Don Vialoux has shown a tendency for the long US bond to outperform during the summer months. I’ve done up a chart showing entry points and exit points on the TLT –buying May, selling October. Bonds have a seasonal tendency to rally during the summer. Further, the US treasury bonds sold off somewhat in the last months of 2012. Certain sentiment indicators that I watch are noting a tendency for “smart money” such as commercial hedgers to be moving back into treasuries. Further, I note that retail investors (“dumb money”) seem to be chanting a bearish mantra about a coming bond market blowup—this, combined with the bullish viewpoint of the commercial hedgers, has my spidey senses tingling. Ben Bernanke will likely help the TLT squeak out a bit of performance this summer so long as he continues with the QE3 program. And you know what they say…don’t fight the Fed!
Keith on BNN
I’m on BNN’s MarketCall tomorrow night (Friday May 3, 2013 ) at 6:00pm. If you have questions that you’d like me to cover on individual stocks during the show, call during the show’s live taping between 6:00pm and 7:00pm. Mention that you read this blog, and I’ll do my best to answer them on air.
The toll free number is 1-855-326-6266.
Does technical analysis outperform?
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