Temporary correction due

s&p channel

As the S&P 500 continues to ride the top of its trend channel, a few momentum divergences have appeared that may suggest the continuation of last weeks pullback.

MACD and RSI have been diverging from the broader market trend. So too has my favourite short termed money flow indicator – shown at the top of the chart as Chalkin MoneyFlow Oscillator.  Further, the seasonality of August can be iffy, as mentioned in my blog a couple of weeks ago. The long termed average for the S&P 500’s return over August is 0.0%, according to Thackray’s guide.

While the short termed indicators do suggest the potential for a bit more downside, the bigger picture remains intact. Higher highs and lows on the S&P 500 as it remains within its bullish trend channel offer no hint of slowing. The longer termed money flow indicator shown in the bottom pane (Accumulation/Distribution) also continues to trend up. Thus, any correction or choppy movements noted this month might be used to accumulate technically and fundamentally superior stocks.

8 Comments

  • JUNK BONDS SELLING FIRST: IS EQUITY NEXT?

    CYCLICAL SECTORS SHOWING SIGNS OF UNDERPERFORMANCE VS. THE BROAD MARKET.
    RISK AVERSION IN HIGH YIELD SMALL CAP STOCKS.
    DETERIORATION IN THE NUMBER OF STOCKS TRADING ABOVE 50 D.M.A. SUGGESTING WANING BREADTH.
    WEAKENING BREADTH IN NYSE CUMULATIVE ADVANCE-DECLINE SUGGESTING A BREAK IN POSITIVE INTERMEDIATE TREND.
    WILL SUPPORT HOLD AT 1925-1900 ON SPX?

    HAVE A NICE SUMMER

    Reply
    • Yes jean Pierre, weakening breadth brought on by smaller caps and some of the tech stocks

      Reply
  • StockCharts’ new seasonality chart indicates that, over the last 20 years, $SPX closed at the end of August, above the beginning, 53% of the time. But, interestingly, it was 45% of the time in July. And (this is a surprise) July is the worst month of the year. Go figure. As much concern now is the divergence of the small caps from the large caps.

    Reply
    • small caps and certain elements of the NAZ –such as the semi-conductors –are showing some divergence in strength

      Reply
  • As long as the Fed keeps the printing press going I can’t see any serious correction coming.

    Reply
  • Hi Keith,

    What’s your take on ERF. It has come off quite a bit. Do you think it can hold the current support level. All indicators appear to be negative. It looks like $21.00 ay be the next level.

    Ron

    Reply
    • We still hold it, and its holding the trendline. No serious deterioration–just a pullback in a trend. Oil pulled back, as did the group. Its not an isolated issue for ERF

      Reply

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