I expect to reduce some equity exposure based on seasonality trends in the next 1-2 weeks. However, that selling process will be limited to 10-15% of the equities we hold within the ValueTrend Equity Platform. A more serious sell signal is my hard and fast sell rule of “a lower low and break of the Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More
It’s the end of the world, as we know it
By now, readers know that I sometimes draw inspiration from classic rock n’ roll for my blogs. I went to high school during the 1970’s – the era that inspired the greatest rock legends of all time (with thanks to the 1950-60’s ground breakers like Elvis, The Beatles, and the Stones). Although not from the Read More
Amateur hour is over
My neighbor walks his dog with me sometimes. He’s a great guy, but very typical of most undisciplined investors. That is, he is long the market and gets frustrated when markets go bearish. He cries the blues and panics when losing money. Recently on a walk, he was bragging about the double digit gains he Read More
How quickly we forget
Humans are myopic by nature. Market participants move in tandem through waves of cautious optimism, to irrational buying exuberance, to speculation – and then reverse direction into doubt, and ultimately sheer panic selling. A commonality of the irrational exuberance (topping stage) and the panic (crash) stage are the attitudes of market participants. A common rally Read More
Outlook
I wanted to give you, the good readership, an outlook and strategy update given the frothy levels on the markets. This time of the year everyone does predictions. I won’t give a one year projection on where markets will be etc. Why bother? Those of us who follow charts are simply going to go with Read More
Assessing the Flying Five & implications for the market
A while ago I wrote a Halloween blog. It covered some of the historic anomalies that have occurred on the stock market this year. Here is the blog. One of the observations I made was that the markets breadth has been narrow. That is, there has been a lack of broad participation by the stocks Read More
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!
Some Technical Analysts have pointed out the divergence between the Dow Industrials and Transports lately. Basically, a new high on the Dow Industrial Avg (INDU) should be confirmed by a new high on the Dow Transportation Avg (TRAN) to be considered “healthy”. Really, the confirmation between the two averages is just one more breadth indicator. Read More
Take advantage of sector rotation and tax policy changes
As you know, materialized capital gains must be claimed, and losses, if any, can be materialized to offset claimable capital gains on your stocks and ETF’s held in taxable accounts. Normally, people use the year-end to dump their losers, and continue to ride their winners. I think that this year, investors might want to materialize Read More
How I view the TSX and oil trades
I mentioned on this blog in September that, despite the possibility of the TSX reaching its old highs – I didn’t think those highs would be breached. The TSX high of just under 16,000 had not been cracked -in fact its been relatively flat since 1999…coming up on 2 decades! I felt that rising Read More