The following is a reprint from a client update we just sent. I thought it would be of use to readers of the blog. As I suggested on BNN recently, the market has made it back into a “vital zone of support”. My last blog also discussed this vital support zone for the markets. The S&P Read More
I dont believe in Santa, but there may be an Elf rally coming soon
It’s too late for any hope of the Santa Rally for the S&P 500 or the TSX 300. In fact, we now have a “bear market/ phase 2 top” confirmation signal. For those unfamiliar with my rules– to confirm an uptrend (mid termed trend) on the weekly chart we need: Higher highs Higher lows Market Read More
The dumber smart money says it ain’t the bottom yet
I’d like to give a shout out to Five Star Charts today for an interesting observation regarding a different view on investor sentiment. Rather than focus on “dumb money” as an indicator of an oversold capitulation point, Boris Chai – founder of FiveStar – focused on looking at institutional money as a contrarian indicator. Interesting, Read More
Bear-o-meter drops a point
Gotta admit I was a little surprised at today’s reading of the Bear-o-meter. My last reading of the compilation, which was taken at the end of October , showed an improvement in risk/ reward. The Bear-o-meter had moved into the “neutral” risk/reward zone with a score of 4 – that, from its prior reading taken Read More
This will be my sell trigger
I expect to reduce some equity exposure based on seasonality trends in the next 1-2 weeks. However, that selling process will be limited to 10-15% of the equities we hold within the ValueTrend Equity Platform. A more serious sell signal is my hard and fast sell rule of “a lower low and break of the Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More
It’s the end of the world, as we know it
By now, readers know that I sometimes draw inspiration from classic rock n’ roll for my blogs. I went to high school during the 1970’s – the era that inspired the greatest rock legends of all time (with thanks to the 1950-60’s ground breakers like Elvis, The Beatles, and the Stones). Although not from the Read More
Amateur hour is over
My neighbor walks his dog with me sometimes. He’s a great guy, but very typical of most undisciplined investors. That is, he is long the market and gets frustrated when markets go bearish. He cries the blues and panics when losing money. Recently on a walk, he was bragging about the double digit gains he Read More
How quickly we forget
Humans are myopic by nature. Market participants move in tandem through waves of cautious optimism, to irrational buying exuberance, to speculation – and then reverse direction into doubt, and ultimately sheer panic selling. A commonality of the irrational exuberance (topping stage) and the panic (crash) stage are the attitudes of market participants. A common rally Read More
Outlook
I wanted to give you, the good readership, an outlook and strategy update given the frothy levels on the markets. This time of the year everyone does predictions. I won’t give a one year projection on where markets will be etc. Why bother? Those of us who follow charts are simply going to go with Read More