By now, readers know that I sometimes draw inspiration from classic rock n’ roll for my blogs. I went to high school during the 1970’s – the era that inspired the greatest rock legends of all time (with thanks to the 1950-60’s ground breakers like Elvis, The Beatles, and the Stones). Although not from the Read More
Amateur hour is over
My neighbor walks his dog with me sometimes. He’s a great guy, but very typical of most undisciplined investors. That is, he is long the market and gets frustrated when markets go bearish. He cries the blues and panics when losing money. Recently on a walk, he was bragging about the double digit gains he Read More
Neartermed correction is probable
I’ve beaten the subject of an overbought market to death lately, so no need to rehash on my mid to long termed chart observations. Visit this blog or this blog or this blog to get a clear picture of what I believe might be the longer termed picture. Today, I’d like to look at the real nitty Read More
Long termed and short termed signals suggest caution
For those who follow this blog regularly, you may know that I follow two macro-market timing models. One of these models is less of a “timing” model than a “risk vs. reward” model. It’s called the Bear-o-meter. It looks at big-picture factors like breadth, seasonality (Thackray and Vialoux’s work), long termed trends, and sentiment. It Read More
Where will gold go from here?
Above is a chart of gold that I’ve kept on my screens for a while. The triangle breakout that I noted to wait for on this blog occurred in August. It’s now hit its first level of resistance that I had noted on that blog via the dashed green line. As mentioned on that Read More
Neartermed trends may be changing
The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More
USD oversold
The chart below shows us that the USD, as compared to a basket of world currencies, is near long termed support and its 200 day MA. Momentum is signalling oversold in a significant way. Sentimentrader.com shows us that commercial hedgers are overly bearish via their hedge positions. This is almost the EXACT Read More
Don’t buy gold…yet.
Currently, gold is in the midst of forming a large symmetrical triangle. This type of triangle is a consolidation pattern that will, upon a breakout on either the upside or downside, provide some guidance as to what the next step for gold will be. An upside breakout would be considered a bullish sign, and a Read More
Oil looks ready for a bounce
Traders, not investors, might be interested in the chart patterns for WTI oil right now. The chart below shows us that crude has been range bound since early 2016. When crude hits around $42, it has bounced off of that level and moved up to anywhere from $47 to $54. Not a bad trade. Technical Read More
Loonie weakens despite rising oil and falling USD
It’s a fact that our Canadian dollar is influenced by the price of oil. Despite a favourable move by WTI crude oil recently – and potential for another dollar or two more upside for oil – the Loonie remains in a downtrend. This is unusual. Meanwhile, I wonder how much there is left Read More