The SPX 500 and the TSX 300 indices seem to be trapped in boxes. The SPX is yet again testing its ceiling in the mid 2900’s. So too is the TSX as it struggles to blow through the mid 16,000’s. Both indices show an amazing commonality of divergences between the return to these old Read More
I dont believe in Santa, but there may be an Elf rally coming soon
It’s too late for any hope of the Santa Rally for the S&P 500 or the TSX 300. In fact, we now have a “bear market/ phase 2 top” confirmation signal. For those unfamiliar with my rules– to confirm an uptrend (mid termed trend) on the weekly chart we need: Higher highs Higher lows Market Read More
It’s the end of the world as we know it. And I feel fine.
Rock band REM sang a truly great song called “It’s the end of the world (as we know it)”. Many of you have heard the song, I’m sure, but if you wish to marvel at how lyrist Mike Mills can carry off a fairly rapid flow of complex lyrics – click here. Today, I’d like Read More
It’s the end of the world, as we know it
By now, readers know that I sometimes draw inspiration from classic rock n’ roll for my blogs. I went to high school during the 1970’s – the era that inspired the greatest rock legends of all time (with thanks to the 1950-60’s ground breakers like Elvis, The Beatles, and the Stones). Although not from the Read More
Amateur hour is over
My neighbor walks his dog with me sometimes. He’s a great guy, but very typical of most undisciplined investors. That is, he is long the market and gets frustrated when markets go bearish. He cries the blues and panics when losing money. Recently on a walk, he was bragging about the double digit gains he Read More
Neartermed correction is probable
I’ve beaten the subject of an overbought market to death lately, so no need to rehash on my mid to long termed chart observations. Visit this blog or this blog or this blog to get a clear picture of what I believe might be the longer termed picture. Today, I’d like to look at the real nitty Read More
Long termed and short termed signals suggest caution
For those who follow this blog regularly, you may know that I follow two macro-market timing models. One of these models is less of a “timing” model than a “risk vs. reward” model. It’s called the Bear-o-meter. It looks at big-picture factors like breadth, seasonality (Thackray and Vialoux’s work), long termed trends, and sentiment. It Read More
Where will gold go from here?
Above is a chart of gold that I’ve kept on my screens for a while. The triangle breakout that I noted to wait for on this blog occurred in August. It’s now hit its first level of resistance that I had noted on that blog via the dashed green line. As mentioned on that Read More
Neartermed trends may be changing
The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More
USD oversold
The chart below shows us that the USD, as compared to a basket of world currencies, is near long termed support and its 200 day MA. Momentum is signalling oversold in a significant way. Sentimentrader.com shows us that commercial hedgers are overly bearish via their hedge positions. This is almost the EXACT Read More