Regular readers know I refer to 1970’s and 1980’s rock lyrics periodically to inspire my blog topics. Today’s blog is brought to you by Queens hit song “Bohemian Rhapsody“. The song begins by asking if this is the real life, or is it just fantasy… I might ask the same about the stock market. Much Read More
This will be my sell trigger
I expect to reduce some equity exposure based on seasonality trends in the next 1-2 weeks. However, that selling process will be limited to 10-15% of the equities we hold within the ValueTrend Equity Platform. A more serious sell signal is my hard and fast sell rule of “a lower low and break of the Read More
Bear-o-meter bullish indicators
The ValueTrend Bear-o-meter has moved up one point to read 7/8 on the risk reward scale. This implies that the reward potential on the market currently outweighs risk, on a relative basis. Of course, readers who follow my blog regularly know that risk and reward are simultaneously present on the markets – but there are Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More
It’s the end of the world, as we know it
By now, readers know that I sometimes draw inspiration from classic rock n’ roll for my blogs. I went to high school during the 1970’s – the era that inspired the greatest rock legends of all time (with thanks to the 1950-60’s ground breakers like Elvis, The Beatles, and the Stones). Although not from the Read More
Amateur hour is over
My neighbor walks his dog with me sometimes. He’s a great guy, but very typical of most undisciplined investors. That is, he is long the market and gets frustrated when markets go bearish. He cries the blues and panics when losing money. Recently on a walk, he was bragging about the double digit gains he Read More
How quickly we forget
Humans are myopic by nature. Market participants move in tandem through waves of cautious optimism, to irrational buying exuberance, to speculation – and then reverse direction into doubt, and ultimately sheer panic selling. A commonality of the irrational exuberance (topping stage) and the panic (crash) stage are the attitudes of market participants. A common rally Read More
Outlook
I wanted to give you, the good readership, an outlook and strategy update given the frothy levels on the markets. This time of the year everyone does predictions. I won’t give a one year projection on where markets will be etc. Why bother? Those of us who follow charts are simply going to go with Read More
Armchair Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) gives us a rough map of where we are in the investment cycle. It’s kind of like looking at a globe. You can identify the country and the region and perhaps even find a major nearby city that approximates your location on a globe. However, a globe is pretty useless at Read More
Long termed and short termed signals suggest caution
For those who follow this blog regularly, you may know that I follow two macro-market timing models. One of these models is less of a “timing” model than a “risk vs. reward” model. It’s called the Bear-o-meter. It looks at big-picture factors like breadth, seasonality (Thackray and Vialoux’s work), long termed trends, and sentiment. It Read More