I conduct a few “Technical analysis 101” lectures every year for investment clubs and university business students. At the end of the class, I like to put up a chart and ask the students (or investment club members) to use the lessons they have just learned to analyse the current market. Given that many Read More
Comparing the daily & weekly S&P500 charts
The two charts above & below show mostly bullish pictures, but there are a few items of caution. First, let’s look at the weekly chart (above), which gives us an intermediate termed (next few months) view. BULLISH: The trend is up (no trend line marked, but it’s obvious). Higher highs and lows, all that good stuff. Read More
Brace for a February pullback
Despite the fact that we are still in the “Best six months” period, according to seasonal patterns (November through to April), February has displayed a seasonal tendency to be the bad-boy in this otherwise favorable time period. Brooke Thackray notes in his Investors Guide that February, on average, produces a -0.1% return. Interestingly, the Read More
Nasdaq correction overdue, trend remains bullish
There’s little debate that the NAZ was due to correct. The index hadn’t had a significant correction to the 50 day MA since mid-October –the index was looking a bit parabolic. Momentum indicators have been rounding over on the daily chart as they have on every minor correction for this index. So the current Read More
Neartermed outlook for oil
If you have followed this blog for a while, you will know that I have been rather bearish on most of the major commodities since 2011. Here’s a blog I wrote in May 2011 noting the potential for a long term cyclical peak for the broad commodities basket, which occurred on schedule in 2011: Read More
Correction on schedule
I mentioned last week that the TSX was setting up for a correction or pause – here’s the blog: https://www.valuetrend.ca/?p=2600 The charts didn’t lie, as we’re now seeing substantial underperformance by that index. Potential downside target for the TSX 300 lies around the 13,000 mark. Its already broken the 50 day MA. The S&P Read More
Japan setting up
A ascending triangle appears to be setting up on the daily chart of the iShares Japanese index chart. Signs are looking positive for a breakout past the top of the triangle. The 200 day and 50 day MA’s are sloping up, and the market broke through the 50 day recently. Momentum indicators are hooking up, including Read More
Time for a pullback
The noted calendar date to buy when utilizing the Best Six Months strategy is October 26th, according to Thackray’s Investors Guide. However, that date is merely an average–the actual buy date can vary anywhere around the 26th by several days or even a few weeks. This year, it made sense to allocate some of any Read More
Will interest sensitive stocks continue to rally?
The 20-yr US long bond is, unsurprisingly, staging an oversold comeback. Following that strength, interest sensitive stocks like utilities, pipelines and REIT’s are bouncing. If you’ve been following this blog or watching my BNN appearances, I emphasized that potential a couple of months ago. The question is, will these sectors continue to rally? My take Read More
Oil chart looks bearish
Earlier this year (January 3rd, 2013), I wrote a blog suggesting that crude’s breakout from the triangle might target around $110/barrel. This is the chart that I printed, with my original target noted on the chart. Here’s the blog: https://www.valuetrend.ca/?p=1754 Technical targets do often work out! WTI is currently breaking down from a consolidation pattern Read More