For those who follow this blog regularly, you may know that I follow two macro-market timing models. One of these models is less of a “timing” model than a “risk vs. reward” model. It’s called the Bear-o-meter. It looks at big-picture factors like breadth, seasonality (Thackray and Vialoux’s work), long termed trends, and sentiment. It Read More
Neartermed trends may be changing
The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More
Seasonal patterns for the summer
Allow me to quote John Murphy’s recent message from his blog on www.stockcharts.com” “Most corrections occur during the late summer/ early autumn period. The two weakest months of the year are usually August and September. October often starts off weak and ends up strong, which makes it a tricky month. A lot of corrections Read More
S&P 500: in an uptrend, interim pullback likely
Today’s chart is a daily chart of the S&P500. Even on this close-up view, you can see that the market is in an uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows, and the slope and level of the 200 day MA (dashed green line) verifies this trend. You’ll also note that the all-important cumulative moneyflow (Advance decline Read More
Chasing returns
I noted in a blog recently that the problem with a high commitment to stocks, equity ETF’s or mutual funds by retail investors is that they are traditionally wrong at market extremes. In other words, retail investors tend to hold more stocks at the top, and hold less stocks at the bottom. Retail investors are currently Read More
Bear-o-meter neutral … for now
A reader posted a query recently regarding the current reading of the Bear-o-meter that I tend to use for macro market risk/reward readings. Although I answered his question under his posted comment, I felt inspired to post a new reading for the Bear-o-meter. This makes sense given the arguably high market valuations, arguably poor Read More
Revisiting the Bear-O-Meter
I typically don’t publish the readings for my “Bear-O-Meter” until and unless there is a change in level that would move the needle from the respective “sell, neutral, or buy” zones. However, by special request of a very long termed reader (“Daddyo”) I agreed to publish the most recent reading of the indicator. For Read More
Do elections influence the markets?
Do election years influence the stock market? The Presidential cycle chart below, courtesy of Dogs of the Dow, suggests that election years can be volatile in the first half, and bullish in the second half. The chart I’ve presented below depicts the S&P 500 since 1996. I have circled the autumn periods for election years Read More
The walking dead are back!
The Walking Dead is a television show produced by AMC—owned by Disney Corp (a stock ValueTrend owns). It’s a zombie show – and I believe the zombies portrayed in the show accurately depict similar mindlessness that “the herd” (i.e. most investors) portray when viewing the market. Back in March and April, the crowd was optimistic. Read More
Short termed bond charts looking dangerous
The seasonal time to own bonds is from May to October, according the Thackray’s guide. Typically, as stock markets weaken over the summer, money flows into the safer haven of the fixed income markets. The long bond on both sides of our border provides the most leverage to play any upside during that period of Read More