• Google+
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • About Us
  • Contact
  • info@valuetrend.ca

ValueTrend

Investment Analysis | Wealth Management | Portfolio Management - Limit Your Risk. Keep Your Money.

Toll Free: 1-888-721-8736
  • Home
  • About Us
  • Who We Serve
  • Case Studies
  • Our Approach
    • Client Satisfaction Survey
  • Performance
    • Equity
    • Income
  • Smartbounce Blog
  • Contact
  • info@valuetrend.ca
  • Facebook
  • Google+
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • Toll Free: 1-888-721-8736
  • Home
  • Who We Serve
    • Case Studies
    • Client Satisfaction Survey
  • Our Approach
  • Performance
    • Equity
    • Income
  • Blog
  • Articles
    • Canadian MoneySaver Articles
    • Investor’s Digest Articles
    • MoneyLetter Articles
    • ValueTrend in the News
  • MarketCall
  • Books
    • Sideways: Using the Power of Technical Analysis to Profit in Uncertain Times
    • SmartBounce: 3 Action Steps to Portfolio Recovery
  • Links

Bear-o-meter drops a point

December 10, 2018 by Keith Richards 2 Comments

Gotta admit I was a little surprised at today’s reading of the Bear-o-meter. My last reading of the compilation, which was taken at the end of October , showed an improvement in risk/ reward. The Bear-o-meter had moved into the “neutral” risk/reward zone with a score of 4 – that, from its prior reading taken Read More

Filed Under: market timing Tagged With: breadth, Dow theory, investment education, market timing, S&P 500, seasonality, Sell in May, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis, VIX

Long termed and short termed signals suggest caution

September 14, 2017 by Keith Richards 3 Comments

For those who follow this blog regularly, you may know that I follow two macro-market timing models. One of these models is less of a “timing” model than a “risk vs. reward” model. It’s called the Bear-o-meter. It looks at big-picture factors like breadth, seasonality (Thackray and Vialoux’s work), long termed trends, and sentiment. It Read More

Filed Under: market timing, US Markets Tagged With: investment education, market timing, RSI, S&P 500, Sell in May, stochastics, stock market forcast, technical analysis, VIX

Neartermed trends may be changing

August 28, 2017 by Keith Richards 5 Comments

The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More

Filed Under: Canadian Markets, market timing, US Markets Tagged With: Bonds, investment education, MACD, market timing, moving average, oil, RSI, S&P 500, Sell in May, stochastics, stock charts, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Seasonal patterns for the summer

July 14, 2017 by Keith Richards 9 Comments

Allow me to quote John Murphy’s recent message from his blog on www.stockcharts.com”   “Most corrections occur during the late summer/ early autumn period. The two weakest months of the year are usually August and September. October often starts off weak and ends up strong, which makes it a tricky month. A lot of corrections Read More

Filed Under: Canadian Markets, commodities, market cycles, market timing, US Markets Tagged With: commodities, investment education, market timing, Sell in May, stock charts, stock market, stock market forecast, technical analysis

S&P 500: in an uptrend, interim pullback likely

July 10, 2017 by Keith Richards 4 Comments

Today’s chart is a daily chart of the S&P500. Even on this close-up view, you can see that the market is in an uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows, and the slope and level of the 200 day MA (dashed green line) verifies this trend. You’ll also note that the all-important cumulative moneyflow (Advance decline Read More

Filed Under: market timing, US Markets Tagged With: investment education, MACD, market timing, moving average, RSI, S&P 500, Sell in May, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Chasing returns

April 24, 2017 by Keith Richards 14 Comments

I noted in a blog recently that the problem with a high commitment to stocks, equity ETF’s or mutual funds by retail investors is that they are traditionally wrong at market extremes. In other words, retail investors tend to hold more stocks at the top, and hold less stocks at the bottom. Retail investors are currently Read More

Filed Under: market timing, US Markets Tagged With: investment education, investor sentiment, market timing, Sell in May, stock charts, technical analysis

Bear-o-meter neutral … for now

March 8, 2017 by Keith Richards Leave a Comment

  A reader posted a query recently regarding the current reading of the Bear-o-meter that I tend to use for macro market risk/reward readings. Although I answered his question under his posted comment, I felt inspired to post a new reading for the Bear-o-meter.  This makes sense given the arguably high market valuations, arguably poor Read More

Filed Under: market timing, US Markets Tagged With: investment education, investor sentiment, market timing, Sell in May, sentiment, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Revisiting the Bear-O-Meter

October 13, 2016 by Keith Richards Leave a Comment

  I typically don’t publish the readings for my “Bear-O-Meter” until and unless there is a change in level that would move the needle from the respective  “sell, neutral, or buy” zones. However, by special request of a very long termed reader (“Daddyo”) I agreed to publish the most recent reading of the indicator. For Read More

Filed Under: market timing, US Markets Tagged With: breadth, investment education, investor sentiment, keith richards, market timing, moving average, S&P 500, Sell in May, stock charts, technical analysis

Do elections influence the markets?

October 3, 2016 by Keith Richards 4 Comments

Do election years influence the stock market? The Presidential cycle chart below, courtesy of Dogs of the Dow, suggests that election years can be volatile in the first half, and bullish in the second half. The chart I’ve presented below depicts the S&P 500 since 1996. I have circled the autumn periods for election years Read More

Filed Under: market cycles, US Markets Tagged With: investment education, market timing, Presidential cycle, S&P 500, Sell in May, stock market forcast, technical analysis, US election

The walking dead are back!

November 4, 2015 by Keith Richards 8 Comments

The Walking Dead is a television show produced by AMC—owned by Disney Corp (a stock ValueTrend owns). It’s a zombie show – and I believe the zombies portrayed in the show accurately depict similar mindlessness that “the herd” (i.e. most investors) portray when viewing the market. Back in March and April, the crowd was optimistic. Read More

Filed Under: market timing, US Markets Tagged With: investor sentiment, market timing, RSI, S&P 500, Sell in May, stochastics, stock charts, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Next Page »

Search this Blog

Subcategories

  • Blog (319)
  • Bonds (26)
  • Canadian Markets (85)
  • commodities (122)
  • currencies (35)
  • International markets (37)
  • investment education (111)
  • market cycles (61)
  • market timing (232)
  • preferred shares (2)
  • Sectors (47)
  • stock market (71)
  • technical analysis (155)
  • Uncategorized (47)
  • US Markets (199)

Why you should watch the bond market if you own higher dividend stocks

I did a late night webinar for the Whiterock Shareholders club in BC last night. One question that came up was my outlook on Canadian bonds. The Canadian bond outlook is rather important for investors Read More

Small stocks might be ready for big gains

Recently, the ValueTrend Equity Platform took a position in a small capped ETF. We only took a bit of the position to start with. But we're seeing evidence for adding to this, and other small capped Read More

Short termed timing of the SPX

Some of my long termed readers might recall the "Near termed timing system" I look at for finessing entry/exit points. It's actually fairly reliable in its signals--albeit very, very whippy. Because Read More

Our Newsletter

Sign Up & Receive
Serving Portfolio Managers Across Canada | ValueTrend
Canadian Investment Management | ValueTrend Approach & Strategy
Canadian Investment Management & Asset Management | ValueTrend Performance
SmartBounce Blog by Keith Richards | Independent Portfolio Manager

as seen in

as seen in

In the News

  • Watch Keith on BNN Bloomberg
  • Valuetrend in the News
  • Read Keith’s Articles
  • Case Studies
 

Categories

  • Blog
  • Canadian Markets
  • Commodities
  • Currencies
  • International Markets
  • Investment Education

Categories

  • Market Cycles
  • Market Timing
  • Stock Market
  • Technical Analysis
  • US Markets

Website

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Who We Serve
  • Case Studies
  • Our Approach
  • Performance

Copyright © 2019 ValueTrend | 147 Worsley Street, Barrie, Ontario L4M 1M3 | Office: 705-721-8736 | Toll Free: 1-888-721-8736

Investor Privacy Policy | Disclosure