Just a quick blog today given my hectic schedule this week. The good news is that I’m going to get right to the point. No waxing eloquent on today’s blog! Here goes: I was interested in viewing what hedgers were doing around a few of the primary commodities trades. Commercial hedgers are considered “smart money”. Read More
Loonie flies south again
Canadian loon’s wisely leave my cottage every year around this time of the year to fly south. If I could hitch a ride, I would. The Canadian loonie looks like it has begun its trip south, too. After flying south to below $0.70 in early 2017, the loonie had risen back to $0.83 on hopes Read More
The three-bar rule applied to the oil trade
I noted on November 6th that the price of oil was moving through $56. I suggested that oil would be a good trade if, and ONLY IF it remained above $56. Note that the breakout point is actually $55 on this chart, but $56 remains a more comfortable barrier over that prior wall of resistance. Read More
How I view the TSX and oil trades
I mentioned on this blog in September that, despite the possibility of the TSX reaching its old highs – I didn’t think those highs would be breached. The TSX high of just under 16,000 had not been cracked -in fact its been relatively flat since 1999…coming up on 2 decades! I felt that rising Read More
Neartermed trends may be changing
The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More
Ask me Anything Answers
Here are the questions, and my responses for last weeks “Ask me Anything” prompter. Natural gas and oil are flat yet stocks are down – why? I had a couple of questions come in regarding the disconnect between nat gas pricing and the producers, and the disconnect between oil prices and the producers. The Read More
Oil looks ready for a bounce
Traders, not investors, might be interested in the chart patterns for WTI oil right now. The chart below shows us that crude has been range bound since early 2016. When crude hits around $42, it has bounced off of that level and moved up to anywhere from $47 to $54. Not a bad trade. Technical Read More
Loonie weakens despite rising oil and falling USD
It’s a fact that our Canadian dollar is influenced by the price of oil. Despite a favourable move by WTI crude oil recently – and potential for another dollar or two more upside for oil – the Loonie remains in a downtrend. This is unusual. Meanwhile, I wonder how much there is left Read More
Short termed trading opportunities
I don’t do a lot of short term trading. But on occasion, I like to look at the odd opportunity that seems to offer a decent upside for a neartermed price swing. When you are looking for a short termed move, you can play counter-trend swings. You don’t have to be looking for the base Read More
Oil’s well that ends well
WTI crude took an abrupt punch in the gut yesterday after a nice rally that began in early March. A couple of my long time readers asked me for an update on oil – so I thought I’d oblige. There are a few factors we may want to examine when looking at any sector or commodity Read More