Oil is setting up to be a potentially powerful contrarian trade. Keep in mind that all contrarian trades are risky. But, with risk, comes reward. Oil is experiencing a high level of capitulation vs. other cyclical equity sectors like metals etc. The bull case Clearly, a Trump win in November would aid the oil sector, Read More
Catching the next breakout
There’s something exciting about an early stage breakout. It feels good to have caught the train early. You get the window seat that way! It’s getting pretty hard to find early stage breakouts lately. I’ve mentioned the emerging markets and Europe on this blog before – but they are past their “early stage” breakout period. Read More
Will Canadian energy break out?
I was on Bloomberg/BNN’s Market call last Friday at noon. One discussion that came up was the outlook for Canadian oil. After four years of ignoring the importance of the Canadian oil scene, imposing carbon taxes, and no support for pipelines, the PM of Canada has apparently pulled his head out of his water box. Read More
Ask me anything
Gold is a simple trade
Gold & oil
I get questions regarding these commodities often enough that I thought I’d present their current technical picture. Here goes: Gold Gold has a big wall ahead of it before we can say it’s out of the consolidation that it’s been stuck in since 2013. Despite the recent excitement (in December I suggested it would Read More
Follow the hedgers
Just a quick blog today given my hectic schedule this week. The good news is that I’m going to get right to the point. No waxing eloquent on today’s blog! Here goes: I was interested in viewing what hedgers were doing around a few of the primary commodities trades. Commercial hedgers are considered “smart money”. Read More
Loonie flies south again
Canadian loon’s wisely leave my cottage every year around this time of the year to fly south. If I could hitch a ride, I would. The Canadian loonie looks like it has begun its trip south, too. After flying south to below $0.70 in early 2017, the loonie had risen back to $0.83 on hopes Read More
The three-bar rule applied to the oil trade
I noted on November 6th that the price of oil was moving through $56. I suggested that oil would be a good trade if, and ONLY IF it remained above $56. Note that the breakout point is actually $55 on this chart, but $56 remains a more comfortable barrier over that prior wall of resistance. Read More
How I view the TSX and oil trades
I mentioned on this blog in September that, despite the possibility of the TSX reaching its old highs – I didn’t think those highs would be breached. The TSX high of just under 16,000 had not been cracked -in fact its been relatively flat since 1999…coming up on 2 decades! I felt that rising Read More
Neartermed trends may be changing
The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More