The VIX (often called the “fear index”) has moved from the status of being suppressed for most of last year into it’s more typical volatile status in 2018. Interestingly – in 2017, the market was so low in volatility that the VIX hovered near 9-10 for the better part of that year. This was an Read More
Bear-o-meter & Neartermed timing model updates
Long-time readers of this blog know that I employ 2 models to get a handle on long term and short termed market risk/reward potential. The first model I use is the Bear-o-meter. A number of you have received a copy of the research paper I did for the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysis) Journal. Read More
Bear-O-Meter still reading bullish
On December 28 I took a reading of the “Bear-O-meter” compilation. Despite the very strong potential of a neartermed pullback on the markets (as discussed here) , the Bear-O-meter continues to read a bullish “5” on the scale of 0-8. The highest ratings for low risk bullish conditions as measured by this compilation are Read More
Smart money/ dumb money
Sentimentrader.com is likely the best collection of sentiment indicators on the web. I’ve subscribed to their service for several years, and they constantly add new services for examining crowd behavior and sentiment on the markets, commodities, currencies, stock sectors, and even individual stocks. One of my favorite compilations that sentimentrader has put together is the Read More
USD oversold
The chart below shows us that the USD, as compared to a basket of world currencies, is near long termed support and its 200 day MA. Momentum is signalling oversold in a significant way. Sentimentrader.com shows us that commercial hedgers are overly bearish via their hedge positions. This is almost the EXACT Read More
Comfortably numb
Eric Parnell, a US Portfolio Manager, wrote an interesting article in Seeking Alpha recently. Here is the link to his article Uncomfortably Numb As we approach the end of the first half of the trading year, Eric notes that the stock market has had only 2 days that fell 0.7% or more in the past Read More
Bear-o-meter signals market risk improving – but still in the danger zone
Many of you have been following my “Bear-o-meter readings for several years. I’ve covered its methodology in the past, and encourage new readers to go to the search engine on this blog and type in “Bear-o-meter” for greater explanation. You’ll also find past readings of the compilation. As always, I like to point out that Read More
Words from the wise
At ValueTrend, we pride ourselves in being one of the more open and “fully disclosing” Portfolio Managers on the street. Our clients receive very detailed email updates on the existing positions held within our models – including current and future expectations as to when we might be selling these holdings, or buying new positions in Read More
Chasing returns
I noted in a blog recently that the problem with a high commitment to stocks, equity ETF’s or mutual funds by retail investors is that they are traditionally wrong at market extremes. In other words, retail investors tend to hold more stocks at the top, and hold less stocks at the bottom. Retail investors are currently Read More
Bear-o-meter neutral … for now
A reader posted a query recently regarding the current reading of the Bear-o-meter that I tend to use for macro market risk/reward readings. Although I answered his question under his posted comment, I felt inspired to post a new reading for the Bear-o-meter. This makes sense given the arguably high market valuations, arguably poor Read More