As a contrarian, I rely at least to some extent on sentiment data. As the Templeton once said: “To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest of fortitude and pays the ultimate greatest reward.” Today I’d like to look at the sentiment profile of gold, Read More
Everything’s up – but is that good?
The past month or so has been unusual. Both “risk-on” and “risk off” assets have rallied. Risk-on refers to the broader S&P 500, and of course the tech stocks and other NASDAQ components. Risk-off refers to gold, the USD and low-beta sectors. They’ve all gone up together in the past 30 + days. Sentimentrader.com notes Read More
Dumb is as dumb does
The past few days have been illustrative of how “Dumb money” operates. For those unfamiliar with the term, Dumb Money refers to retail investors. Some of you may be familiar with the “Smart Money/Dumb Money” confidence spread indicator I post on occasion. Sentimentrader.com pits Dumb Money (retail investors, small lot traders, small options traders) against Read More
Catching the next breakout
There’s something exciting about an early stage breakout. It feels good to have caught the train early. You get the window seat that way! It’s getting pretty hard to find early stage breakouts lately. I’ve mentioned the emerging markets and Europe on this blog before – but they are past their “early stage” breakout period. Read More
Gold vs. USD: Who will blink first?
Todays chart compares gold and the USD. The black line is gold, and the USD is red. Upon a quick glance of the chart, you can easily see that most of the time, gold and the greenback move in opposite directions. That tendency makes gold a hedge against a falling dollar. On occasion, the Read More
Golden days
I’ve been golds whipping boy for a few years now. And for good reason—the metal had been stuck in a giant consolidation pattern that offered no reason to buy into the metal – beyond short termed trades as it girated up and down in that consolidation. In fact, the long termed chart below was posted Read More
Ask me anything
Gold is a simple trade
Gold & oil
I get questions regarding these commodities often enough that I thought I’d present their current technical picture. Here goes: Gold Gold has a big wall ahead of it before we can say it’s out of the consolidation that it’s been stuck in since 2013. Despite the recent excitement (in December I suggested it would Read More
Gold: hold, fold, or go in bold
Gold looks to be staging a minor rally. Is it worth a trade? Perhaps. Before analysing the prospects of trading gold – I thought I would re-visit a chart that I have posted before. Red line is the S&P 500, black line is gold. It’s a correlation study on gold vs. the S&P 500 going Read More
Gold oversold
I have presented this gold chart (above) on my blog in the past. In my May 2018 blog, where you can see this same chart, gold had just broken $1300. In the blog I noted that sentiment was setting up for a short rebound – but I did not feel that we would see the Read More