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Bear-o-meter drops a point

December 10, 2018 by Keith Richards 2 Comments

Gotta admit I was a little surprised at today’s reading of the Bear-o-meter. My last reading of the compilation, which was taken at the end of October , showed an improvement in risk/ reward. The Bear-o-meter had moved into the “neutral” risk/reward zone with a score of 4 – that, from its prior reading taken Read More

Filed Under: market timing Tagged With: breadth, Dow theory, investment education, market timing, S&P 500, seasonality, Sell in May, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis, VIX

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!

November 13, 2017 by Keith Richards Leave a Comment

Some Technical Analysts have pointed out the divergence between the Dow Industrials and Transports lately. Basically, a new high on the Dow Industrial Avg (INDU) should be confirmed by a new high on the Dow Transportation Avg (TRAN) to be considered “healthy”. Really, the confirmation between the two averages is just one more breadth indicator. Read More

Filed Under: market timing Tagged With: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Dow theory, investment education, market timing, stock charts, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Dow non-confirmation

February 27, 2017 by Keith Richards 3 Comments

The chart below illustrates a few incidences where the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports diverged over a few months. As you can see, when the industrials (green line) were moving up while the Transports (red/black line) moved down, you eventually saw a correction in the industrials. Conversely, we saw the transportation stocks rise while the Read More

Filed Under: market timing Tagged With: Dow theory, investment education, market timing, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Dow divergence

July 14, 2016 by Keith Richards 6 Comments

When the transports diverge, or fail to make new highs while industrials are making new high, this can be an advanced warning of a correction. I’ve made a point of warning readers of Dow divergences or non-confirmations by the transports on this blog in the past. For those who follow my blog, you will know Read More

Filed Under: market timing, technical analysis, US Markets Tagged With: divergence, Dow theory, investment education, market timing, S&P 500, stock charts, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Does the transports bear suggest a market pullback?

July 20, 2015 by Keith Richards Leave a Comment

The Dow Theory contains a tenet suggesting the Dow Transportation index must confirm the highs and direction of the Industrials. As I, and other Technical Analysts have discussed over the past weeks – we are currently witnessing a divergence in the direction of the Transports vs. the Industrials.. The DJTI has been moving down since Read More

Filed Under: Canadian Markets, investment education, market timing, technical analysis, US Markets Tagged With: Dow theory, investment education, market timing, S&P 500, stock market forcast, technical analysis

What Dow Theory may be telling us about the market

May 22, 2015 by Keith Richards 12 Comments

Dow Theory states that Dow Industrials and Transports averages must confirm each other (amongst other components of that theory). If these two indices diverge, it’s potentially bearish. The DJIA and S&P 500 have broken out to new all-time highs recently. When the Transports (TRAN) and Utilities (UTIL) indices didn’t confirm the highs on the Industrials, Read More

Filed Under: investment education, market cycles, market timing, US Markets Tagged With: DJIA, DJTA, DJUA, Dow theory, investment education, market timing, S&P 500, stock charts, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis

Dow Theory says stay in the market for now.

March 30, 2015 by Keith Richards 8 Comments

Given the volatility of late, one might turn to the Dow Theory to ask if markets are showing signs of a top. There are many components to the Dow Theory. The main tenants involve identifying the market’s phase, trend identification, volume confirmation, and finally market average confirmation. We’ll be looking at market average confirmation today Read More

Filed Under: investment education, market timing, technical analysis Tagged With: Dow theory, investment education, market timing, stock charts, stock market forcast, technical analysis

We’ve had the “Zig”, what about the “Zag”?

July 7, 2014 by Keith Richards 5 Comments

  Stockcharts.com, as well as other charting software services, offer a tool known as the “ZigZag” tool. The ZigZag tool is not an indicator—it simply filters out smaller price movements. Stockcharts has a default setting of 5% (although you can change this as you wish).  The 5% setting ignores all price movements less than 5%, Read More

Filed Under: Blog, commodities, investment education Tagged With: commodities, Dow, Dow theory, Emerging Markets, keith richards, market rally

Watch these levels for a buying opportunity

January 27, 2014 by Keith Richards 2 Comments

  Followers of Dow Theory may have noted the divergence between the Dow Industrials ($INDU on the chart–blue line) and the Dow Transports ($TRAN on the chart–black/red line). This may have been one of the warning signs of the current correction. To be honest, I didn’t expect a correction to happen for another week or Read More

Filed Under: Blog, stock market, technical analysis Tagged With: Dow theory, investment education, keith richards, market timing, S&P 500, stock charts, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis

What’s next for the markets

September 24, 2012 by Keith Richards Leave a Comment

Don Vialoux (www.dvtechtalk.com) recently noted on his daily blog that we have entered the weakest period for markets from a seasonal perspective (Sept 16- Oct. 9th). Don tells us that this weakness is usually related to “earnings confessions” – i.e. negative guidance by reporting corporations, along with analyst downgrades. This year, according to Don, analysts Read More

Filed Under: Blog Tagged With: breadth, DJIA, Dow theory, investment education, keith richards, market cycles, market timing, S&P 500, smartbounce, stochastics, stock market, stock market forcast, technical analysis

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Hate mail and Love letters

At ValueTrend, we’ve been pretty concerned about the overbought conditions on the markets. Sure, we rode the rally for a while, but 3 weeks ago we brought our cash back up, and even went so far as to Read More

Why so serious?

While down in Florida, I did plenty of work, including some speaking engagements, blogs, and even did a fairly decent sized stock rotation within the ValueTrend Equity Platform. But I had plenty of Read More

Whaz-up with da’ markets?

About a week ago, we got a neartermed timing model “sell signal”. This lines up with the “cautious” reading I got from the more macro-viewing Bear-o-meter on February 4th Read More

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