Anyone who follows sentiment studies will know that crowd sentiment is considered a contrarian indicator. When “everyone” loves a market or security –it’s time to sell. Conversely, if “everyone” hates it—it might be time to buy. Baron Rothschild once said that the time to buy is when the blood is running in the street. That’s Read More
Bonds are overbought
Bearish sentiment prevails on the stock market, which has driven money into the bond market. Things are getting rather overbought on both Canadian and US bond markets –as illustrated by the XBB iShares Canadian Bond ETF, and the TLT US long bond ETF. Note the overbought momentum studies (stochastics, RSI, MACD), and the parabolic rise Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More
US bonds rolling over, Canadian bonds questionable
After a summer of relatively good performance, the US long bond looks to be breaking down. We sold our 5% position in this sector on the expectation that risk is now greater then reward potential. Seasonals end in early October for bonds, but it was the chart that gave us the nudge out of the Read More
Neartermed trends may be changing
The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels. The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write Read More
Don’t ignore the long bond uptrend
The US long bond, as illustrated by the $USB 30 year bond price chart below is still trading within the bullish trend channel that its been contained to since 1990. I got into this business in 1990, and my formative years were spend sitting beside a former pro bond trader from Sri Lanka. Hiran was Read More
Words from the wise
At ValueTrend, we pride ourselves in being one of the more open and “fully disclosing” Portfolio Managers on the street. Our clients receive very detailed email updates on the existing positions held within our models – including current and future expectations as to when we might be selling these holdings, or buying new positions in Read More
Short termed trading opportunities
I don’t do a lot of short term trading. But on occasion, I like to look at the odd opportunity that seems to offer a decent upside for a neartermed price swing. When you are looking for a short termed move, you can play counter-trend swings. You don’t have to be looking for the base Read More
US Bonds may be a contrarian play
Contrarian investing is the easiest investment strategy in hindsight, but the hardest one to actually profit by in foresight. After all, you and I are hardwired – through a center in our brains known as the limbic system – to run with the crowd. Following the crowd isn’t such a bad thing when it comes Read More
Spend Liberally
The guy who claimed that you could spend your way to prosperity and “the budget will balance itself” may have some cold hard reality hitting him in the face right now. A new analysis by TD bank says the Trudeau government is on track to run $150 billion in budget deficits over the next five Read More