Place ‘yer bets!

Today: The media finally catches on. Then…How to play the myriad of mortgages going default or refinancing in 2025/26. And finally, a little contest. Step right up, ladies and germs. Place ‘yer bets. Everyone can win a prize!

The media finally catches on

I’ve been telling you that US inflation will be higher for longer than 2% for 3 years now. And that we’d see a softening economy. Stagflation!

Seems a few media people are printing, as usual, late analysis.

 

Canadian economy under pressure: How to play it

OSFI says mortgage payment shock poses a key risk to Canada’s financial system

To me, this means buy Canadian bonds. Why? Well, you just know that the BOC will be pressed to lower rates at an elevated pace with this in mind! That means… the highest quality investment grade government & corporate bonds, baby! Be a bit wary of the Canadian banks for their exposure to this problem, BTW.

Here’s the iShares Canadian Bond ETF as an example (not a recommendation). I’ve discussed this Canadian bond ETF trade in the past as an illustration of the sector. Watch for a breakout above $20 that sticks. The momentum oscillators are all telling us that it just may do that. If so…watch for a mid-$20’s target.

Place ‘yer bets: Deadline Tuesday June 25, midnight

I’m trying to make things a little fun today. So here’s another little contest. 3 winners only. Answers must be placed on this blog in comment section.

IMPORTANT: If you are a subscriber- you need to go to the website at www.valuetrend.ca and enter your answer to the question in the comments section. DO NOT HIT REPLY ON YOUR EMAILED COPY OF THIS BLOG. GO TO THE ONLINE BLOG VERSION.

YOU MUST ENTER YOUR ANSWERS ON THIS BLOG ONLINE IN THE COMMENT SECTION BY MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY JUNE 25TH. ANSWERS AFTER THAT WILL NOT BE COUNTED

First prize: My two most recent books Sideways New Updated Edition & Smart Money Dumb Money.  I will sign both. AND…drumroll please…a copy of Larry McDonalds new book  How to Listen When Markets Speak, in hardcover… a $40 value alone!

Second Prize: Sideways New Updated Edition, plus Smart Money Dumb Money. I will sign both.

Third Prize:   Original edition of Sideways. Again, signed. This book was on the best sellers list for quite some time, as my publisher kept telling me that year.

The Question: WHAT WILL THE CLOSING LEVEL OF THE S&P 500 INDEX BE AS OF THE LAST TRADING DAY OF JUNE (FRIDAY JUNE 28TH)?

FIRST PRIZE GOES TO THE CLOSEST GUESS, SECOND PRIZE TO THE NEXT CLOSEST, AND THIRD GOES TO..YOU GUESSED IT, TO THE THRID CLOSEST GUESS OF THE SPX LEVEL. Oh, and if two people guess exactly the same and end up being tied for a prize, I’ll time-stamp the fist persons answer as the winner. Also–I encourage you to be as precise as you want (eg. you think it will land near 5400, then make it as close to the precise number aka 5431.7, or something like that).

ENTRIES UP TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY JUNE 25TH WILL BE COUNTED. NONE AFTER THAT!

BONUS QUESTION FOR THOSE WHO DONT WIN THE FIRST 3 PRIZES.  A copy of  my original book SmartBounce – no longer in print – while quantities last. Note: I cannot guarantee everyone answering correctly will get a copy, as I only have about 20 or so left–so it will be first to answer, first in line, etc. I will sign them

Bonus question: Who said this, and why should it horrify us that this person said it?

“I have a little confession to make. i have a slight learning disability. I am dysnumeric*. What that means is I have an inability  to handle small numbers and little calculations. Those easy things that people do so well.”

Dysnumeria is a learning disorder related to numbers, specifically in reading or writing them123It is characterized by an innate difficulty in recognizing and processing numbers, such as reading long series of digits or performing arithmetic calculations

Of note: this isn’t a slight against people who cant do simple math. Its a slight against people who take on jobs, which, at the very least, requires such a basic ordinary skill. AKA, if I want to be an artist, I should be able to draw more than just stick people.

I’ll be back later in the week with more financial facts, figures and fun. Stay tuned.

 

36 Comments

  • I say that the S&P will be at 5412 on the 28th and Justin Trudeau said that

    Reply
  • I think S&P will close June at 5505. The person with Dysnumeria is our current Federal PM (JT).

    Reply
  • The SP500 ends the week at 5515

    The second answer is Justin Trudeau.
    Pretty sad I know………..

    Reply
  • I will guess S&P 500 is 5481.1 last trading day of June. Trudeau was also the one who claimed he was dysnumeric. I would say he is more than that but the best two words to describe him are corrupt and imbecile. Thx Keith.

    Reply
  • The S&P will be 5431.60 this Friday :)…why not

    As for the Bonus question, If our JT cannot handle small numbers, how can he guide our country with pretty big numbers in play (especially Oil and Gas).

    Reply
    • Tom we have tried emailing you to get your mailing address–contact us via our contact page so we can get you the book–thx!

      Reply
  • I believe the SPX will be 5484.62 at the end of June.
    Answer to bonus question: Justin Trudeau.

    Reply
  • The SPX will be at 5403.13 at the close of June 28, 2024.
    The quote is attributed to Larry McDonald.

    Reply
  • Good Morning,
    With the CPI data coming out that day, it’s a crap shoot how the markets will respond based on the data. My bet, CPI will come in a bit lower then expected adding to the markets expectation that the Fed will cut twice this year instead of once.
    Markets will close at 5,500.
    The bonus question was easy.
    Justin Trudeau claimed that he was dysnumeric.

    Reply
  • 5261.6
    Bonus – Justin Trudeau
    (easy – the answer was in the q.)

    Reply
  • Hi Keith:
    My guess for the S&P at the end of the Month is 5303.03

    Second question answer is none other than the Loser in Chief “Justin Trudeau”!

    I have long enjoyed your market comments and occasional political tirade! Keep it up!

    Cheers Tom

    Reply
  • Good Day Mr. Richards and Team,
    S&P Closing Closing Level Guess @ 5375.79
    Bonus Question : TRUDEAU !

    Reply
  • Hi Keith,
    I’m betting on 5505 for your contest.
    Thanks for all your great articles!
    Graham

    Reply
  • Hi,

    The Question: WHAT WILL THE CLOSING LEVEL OF THE S&P 500 INDEX BE AS OF THE LAST TRADING DAY OF JUNE (FRIDAY JUNE 28TH)?
    Answer: S&P 500 at 5341.72

    Bonus question: Who said this, and why should it horrify us that this person said it?
    Justin Trudeau said it. It is horrifying because is the Prime Minister and it explains why he’s blown up the federal Canadian debt under his tenure. He has zero understanding of economics and business, which explains why Canadian professionals are emigrating out of the country for better financial opportunities.

    Regards,
    Matt

    Reply
  • CLOSING LEVEL OF THE S&P 500 INDEX BE AS OF THE LAST TRADING DAY OF JUNE (FRIDAY JUNE 28TH) —- 5376.0.

    Who said this……. our future Ex-Prime Minister, J. Trudeau.
    And why should it horrify us that this person said it? Because every small ‘miscalculation’ he makes costs this country Billions of Dollars!

    Reply
  • Answer to Q1: S&P 500: 5432.5
    I feel it’s going to be in a tight range for a few weeks until we get some bad news from nowhere in late summer.

    Answer to Q2: Justin Trudeau

    Thanks!

    Reply
  • 5431.42 will be the S&P close on Friday
    (institutions trying to hold on and complete the 1st half of the year with their nice return before the overdue correction takes place in the 3rd QTR)

    Justin Trudeau
    (easy one… thanks ! lol)

    Reply
  • My guess for the S&P is 5426.2

    Thank you Keith for your valuable information.
    Keep those wheels spinning 🙂

    Reply
  • Shoot ! I was close !!!! Bravo to the winner… lol. That was fun Keith, Thanks !

    Reply

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