The TSX300 hit and slightly over-reached my target (set back in 2015) of 15,600. Please see the chart below. It actually got pretty close to 16,000 before reversing into what I must say was a fairly predictable decline from those levels.
The TSX remains in a neartermed downtrend and sits near 15,100 as I write this blog. How low could it go? Well, it’s a fairly concentrated index so you do need to pay attention to its three main sectors (financials, energy, materials) to determine where it’s going next. But I’d give it a good shot of hitting the dashed green line of support on the chart below – which lies somewhere around 14,500 or thereabouts.
The big picture for the S&P 500 looks to be maintaining its uptrend (rising black trendline, and above the 200 day MA) on the chart below. Moneyflow (bottom pane) is bullish–despite slowing neartermed moneyflow momentum (top pane).
However, a minor trendline break (green line) is appearing on the daily chart. That’s an early signal, and it may prove invalid. However, some of the factors I mentioned in this blog suggest that the US market is ripe for a correction – if you haven’t already, you might want to read it. MACD has been diverging for a while, and other momentum studies have too. I also note that many of the market leaders in the FANG (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) are faltering. So keep your eyes open—there are many other factors such as breadth and seasonality that are weighing against continued upside for this index.
We’re 40% cash with a 5% USD treasury bond position in the ValueTrend Managed Equity Platform. We have a huge list of stocks that I like technically, and Craig likes fundamentally. We’re looking for an opportunity to buy any of them on weakness. Perhaps nothing will come of the signals I note above. But if something does happen – we are prepared. Perhaps you should be too.