June 8, 2018 – When subpar stocks turn around, there’s a reason – For those investors looking for value stocks, it sometimes helps to look at the worst-performing stocks of the previous year. While it is certainly NOT the case that every poorly performing stock represents a value play, there can sometimes be flowers amongst the weeds. Let’s do some gardening…
May 11, 2018 – Correlating gold, bonds and the USD with the S&P500 – By observing the charts of almost 30 years of history on the S&P500, we might gather some clues as to where we might hide our money should a bear market ensue.
April 27, 2018 –Who doesn’t love the banks? – Rising money flow, bullish indicators, and a solid comparable relative strength compared to the S&P/TSX Composite suggest that the sector might be OK until the spring.
April 6, 2018 – Canada may continue to underperform – The TSX 300 is typically seasonally bullish into the spring. At ValueTrend we have bought a few Canadian stocks and stock sectors in light of this potential, but we are taking a short-term view on most of these positions. This article highlights the challenges facing investors who have a longer-term view on Canada, and the Canadian dollar.
March 9, 2018 – Quick correction rebound is a double-edged sword – Orderly markets steadily rise while reaching higher highs and dipping to higher lows, but invariably correct.
February 23, 2018 – Canadian Tech – Industry worth it, but choose carefully– “Is the Canadian tech sector worth buying at all, given the rabid moves in the US tech markets?”
January 5, 2018 – Myopic by nature, how quickly we forget – “Chorus of “This time is different” surfaces at market tops and bottoms.”
November 3, 2017 – Living and Investing in the Fifth Wave: Bull Long in Tooth – “There may be a good amount of upside left in this market. Nevertheless, there’s no denying that we are not in the early phases of a bull market. We’re in the final inning of the game, however long it may take to complete.”
October 6, 2017 – Macro Market Timing Models: The Bear-o-meter – “We have a near-termed sell signal, or close to it, on the short-termed timing model. All in, it may be wise to maintain a cautious stance at this point.”
September 8, 2017 – Profit from shorter-term swings in value – “Some stocks are good long-termed holds. Such stocks are in a nice upward trend, and display consistent, solid earnings growth over time. But there is another type of stock pattern that you can profit from if you don’t mind taking advantage of shorter-termed swings…stocks stuck within a sideways trading range.”
August 11, 2017 – Keep an eye on the NASDAQ (and the big tech and biotech stocks influencing it) – “Money is still going into the sector, but at a much slower pace. And that matters. Here’s why….
July 7, 2017 – Timing the sweet spot for Canadian Banks – “While the best time to buy bank stocks has traditionally been autumn, the end of June makes a compelling case.”
June 23, 2017 – Loonie uncouples from oil price – “Despite a favourable move by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil recently – and potential for another dollar or two more upside for oil – the loonie remains in a downtrend. This is unusual.”
May 12, 2017 – Signs indicate imminent pullback – “Retail investors express worry over potential for correction, but keep money in market anyway.”
April 28, 2017 – Canadians still hold plenty of US exposure – “Is a U.S. market correction coming in the summer?”
March 10, 2017 – Who benefits from corporate welfare? – “Following Bombardier and General Motors’ ignoble history of receiving taxpayer ‘investments’.”
January 27, 2017 – Seasonality could push energy sector gains – “Seasonal studies indicate that buying into the energy sector in late February and then selling in early May can be a profitable trade.”
December 23, 2016 – Not ready to jump on the oil bandwagon – “Oil’s outlook is improving, but I’m not jumping on the oil bandwagon just yet.”
October 21, 2016 – Every bubble must pop, but when? – “The Age of the ‘No Other Alternative’ Bubble.”
September 23, 2016 – Will oil, gold, or base metals pull back? – “Seasonality likely a catalyst for correction.”
September 9, 2016 – Take Advantage of Potential Volatility – “Seasonal weakness provides window of opportunity to redeploy capital in sectors with lower prices.”
August 12, 2016 – Keep on Rockin’ Until the Music Stops – “After commodities’ strong rally since the beginning of the year, is it still worth jumping in?”
July 22, 2016 – On Reducing Risk in the Portfolio – “S&P500 became flat and choppy after Fed stimulus ended in 2014”
June 24, 2016 – Australian economy picks up on resources – The upward move in commodities has driven commodity sensitive economies such as Canada and Australia off of multi-year lows. Unlike Canada, however, Australia has seen economic growth at the fastest pace in 4 years. How long before Canada sees such growth is to be determined.
May 27, 2016 – Dumb money buys when the market tops – The Smart money versus Dumb money confidence spread is something that sentimentrader.com tracks. “Smart” investors are those who tend to make better buy or sell decisions at market extremes. They include large, sophisticated institutions like pensions and commercial hedgers, insiders and other, better-informed investors. “Dumb” investors, according to the spread, are those who reach the highest levels of confidence at inopportune, key market-turning points – that is, they are most bullish at tops and most bearish at bottoms.
April 29, 2016 – From Dow Theory to ‘dumb’ money – longer term tests to detect impending market trouble – In addition to classic trend analysis such as trend and moving average work, I like to look at macro (long-termed) signals that can provide a heads up for potential risk in the months ahead. Long-termed signals include: sentiment, breadth, volatility indicators like the VIX, and valuation metrics like price-to-book and price-to-earnings ratios. Short- and mid-termed signals include: momentum oscillators, overbought and oversold indicators, money flow, and comparative relative strength studies. The investment game is all about attempting to determine the relative risk on the markets in relationship to potential reward.
February 26, 2016 – Where is the loonie swimming to next? – When we look at the loonie and its near-term potential movements, its not as simple as merely looking at its relationship to the US dollar.
January 29, 2016 – Domestic Dividend Stocks Disappoint – “Higher dividend paying stocks were the worst performers in 2015 when compared to low- or no-dividend paying stocks in Canada.”