I have something special for you this week. Recently, I presented an argument to the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysts) individual investor division that examined the potential for a bear market. The seminar was NOT a prognostication regarding a pending bear market. However, I am of the opinion that the market is in for a much higher level of volatility in the coming 12 month (or thereabouts) period. But hey – I could be wrong. As such – The presentation to the CSTA was not to predict a big pullback or bear market and put a date on it. Instead, it was to prepare for the potential of a more volatile environment. As you know, volatility in the market is inevitable. My presentation is less about WHEN it will happen – and more about WHAT TO DO when it happens. Because, as you very well know, it will happen.
The presentation, which was a re-make of a presentation (and blog series) that I created way back in 2010, is called “Bull, Bear, Bottom & Bounce”. The original presentation and corresponding blogs highlighted the strategy that ValueTrend followed during the 2008-2009 crash. During that bear market, ValueTrend experienced considerably less downside AND a considerably better full recovery cycle than the markets. The steps we took to limit risk and profit by the selloff were not complicated, and can be duplicated by any reader of this blog. I have re-made the presentation with new charts and illustrations, while also drawing from the original slides for illustration of how we have, and will, handle a market crash. This strategy is not rocket science. You can follow the strategy just as easily as we did.
The presentation is divided into 4 segments:
- BULL – Knowing when to hold, and when to fold (as Kenny Rogers sang).
- BEAR – Identify the bear. Concepts such as legging out, how and when to sell.
- BOTTOM – Early signals that a bottom may be forming. Strategies to take advantage of a bottom, yet not get caught in a false signal.
- BOUNCE – Evidence that the bottom is in and a new bull market may be emerging. Playing the opportunities.
So – no blog today, other than a heads up to watch for a new video being released later this week.
BTW – This presentation won’t be one of my quick n’ dirty sector-comment videos. This will be a structured battle plan that any regular reader of this blog will want to watch. The next blog will contain the link for the presentation. You don’t want to miss this one!
Very generous. Thanks
The title indicated that this next presentation would be Part II. Did I miss Part 1 somehow?
Its my second time presenting the Bull Bear, Bottom, Bounce seminar-first time being in 2010-hence the part 2.
Oh, that’s what you meant! LOL
Glad I didn’t miss anything this time around👍😁
With the MACD hooking up in the past couple of days and crossing over, which I believe is a bullish signal, and with the S&P 500 almost back to its all time high, do you still think that there is a possibility of a sell off late October or is this scenario less likely now?
Neartermed resistance at just under 4500 is being tested right now. MACD crossed on the daily but not the weekly. Id say that yes, its a better chance for no selloff in late October, but the show ain’t over yet….
It appears that the resistance level of 4,500 has been broken. 3 days to see if it holds? If it holds, does that imply upward and onward?
The MACD weekly still seems to be curving downward.
yes its back to its old highs thereabouts–good for you to notice the MACD divergence–I have been talking about this for a while–in fact this morning I recorded the “Bull, Bear, Bottom, Bounce” video and mentioned that divergence