To start, I want to remind everyone that I am involved with two MoneyShow webinars this Wednesday and Thursday. The first is a panel discussion where a number of Portfolio Managers and stock-picking gurus are presenting a few ideas for investors to (hopefully) profit by. I’ll do my best to offer a few good ideas. One of which will be to take advantage of my recommendation on Wednesday of last week. That is – to take advantage of “Covid-on” trades. Yup – you read it here first folks! Nobody else that I could spot was talking about that opportunity before my blog. You’ll hear more now, as the hype ramps up. Now is the time to move into stay-inside and Covid-benefiting stocks. As a reminder: That’s FAANG’s, indoor-entertainment, shop-online, and vaccine-producing drug firms. The Google search trends are just starting to hook up – and it will be a while before the Covid paranoia frenzy ends. The media will tell you to be afraid. I, on the other hand, will tell you to trade the fear . Again – I urge you to read my blog from Wednesday – we very likely have a substantial opportunity ahead of us. Will you profit, or will you ignore it? This is one of those contrarian opportunities that sets ValueTrend away from the crowd.
Wait. I’M NOT DONE YET.! You know that I wont steer you wrong. So, even if you can’t make the December 1st MoneyShow panel, I URGE you to attend my seminar on December 2nd on Contrarian Investing. You need to develop the mindset of someone who thinks beyond the crowd. You think you do. But your likely don’t. Being a contrarian takes practice, and I’ll give you a few examples of how its done.
My presentation on contrarian thinking and investing this Thursday will get you to stop and think. I mean really think. True contrarian thinking is tough. This is the same presentation that I delivered for the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts back in the summer. Don’t miss it. No, its not available after December 2nd. You have to be there – or be square. Register here for free.
I’ve had a few emails asking me about the ETA for the Online Technical Analysis Course. I’ve just submitted the material to my producer, and he is making it flow properly. Shooting will begin next week. I’ve produced something like 250 charts, illustrations, and lessons for this program. Along the way are quizzes to keep you engaged. The GRAND FINALE comes at the end of the course with me walking you through some actual evaluations and resulting trading decisions that ValueTrend made this past October. My producer, who has directed numerous courses for many industries, told me this “Putting it all together” segment of the course makes it worth multiple times more that we charge. He strongly suggested I up the price. But I won’t be doing that. I’m keeping it around a hundred bucks. Bottom line here is that I am financially secure and I make a good living managing money. This course, to me, is more about building a legacy – I don’t need to make a big profit on it. I have decided to keep the price at a level where I expect to recover my costs – and more importantly, that more people can afford. I believe that this course is the most complete investment program available on the market for intermediate level retail investors.
Yes, I am excited. You should be, too.
ETA is in January. For those who responded to the survey last winter, you will, as promised, receive an email in January that will entitle you to a substantial discount on the course. You folks made it happen, and I am indebted to you for your input. Subscribers of this blog will also get a discount. Again – you guys are my reason for doing this – so I’ll do right by you. Again, expect something in your inbox in January.
If you do not subscribe to this blog – what the heck is the matter with you?!?! Just kidding. But blog subscribers enjoy the benefit of receiving this blog in their inbox immediately after its published – so you get this info on a timely basis. Like my Covid-trade last week! You also get benefits like the course discount. So get on it, Holmes (and ladies)!
First, I noticed that the Stay-at-home stocks on the TSX all fell on Friday as it seemed to be a broad based sell off. Names that did well during the last covid cycle like the grocery stores, Canadian Tire, technology (TSX),Alimentation Couche -Tarde, etc. all sold off. Although, I think that they are apart of the next rotation, I wonder if they will continue to sell off with everything else if Omicron turns out to be vaccine resistant? Plus, I am wondering if this is potentially the scenario that you described a short while back where we had a drop, a bounce to a lower high, and then another drop. If Omicron turns out to be vaccine resistant, that would likely give us a scenario to raise cash until the markets settle?
Very early to make any calls on market trend yet Wendy. I will follow my rules as always. Re the stay inside stocks–some stores like CDN TIRE may or may not do well this time vs last–but I do think that the “real” stay inside stocks like AMZN (we hold) and SHOP and NFLX, also perhaps ZOOM etc could do well (despite stupid valuation). We have to step in, not all at once, as things play out.
With the stay at home trades you are suggesting, would you think oil and material stocks are off the table?
As noted to another reader last week:
We hold our oil — as our one year view is for higher prices. This Biden move to uncap the reserves is just that–reserves. They will run out and he will be back to square one. Perhaps, when campaigning against oil & threatening to phase out the OPEC producers production (not exactly inspiring cooperation by them, knowing this is the guy who wants to fire them from their jobs, so to speak), shutting down the Canadian pipeline that would deliver energy products, and capping the wells/ shale production in the USA, he might have thought that these moves were a tad premature. The nation and world depends on carbon energy, and we are years away from the green transition. Must be his old age dementia that failed to inform him on this reality.
One corner of the ‘Stay at Home’ trade that did work last Friday were the online gambling stocks. Just shows that some traders out there were thinking along the same lines as you were, Keith!
With oil dropping significantly today, looks like it has broken technical support of $67. $60 to $62 seems to be in the cards. Do you hang on given your 1 year outlook?
We have “gassy” energy companies with only one pure oil producer, and we are holding them all for a longer termed view.
My guess is this latest covid scariant will be harmless the same as Delta was and the market will stabilize before Christmas. Already some sentiment indicators are showing maximum fear right now. The law of diminishing returns will apply to each successive covid variant and covid scare headlines in general. Each covid scare news item will have less and less shock value to the markets.
The desperate media will soon need to look for others items to generate clicks perhaps the discovery of aliens on earth.
I just wrote an update newsletter (if you subscribe you will get in Monday) suggesting that the covid cycle will be less aggressive this time–so we are on the same page.
Aliens! You kill me Dave.