Just a few items to mention today:
Many of you know that ValueTrend subscribes to the very unique BearTraps institutional research, including ACG political economic intel. Both of these services offer non-mainstream deep-dive analytics that are normally unavailable to individual investors. I like to pass on points from their research that would be of interest to you. Here are interesting comments coming out of BearTraps today.
First, a quick summary of the “commonly accepted outlook” for markets in 2023:
1. No/ shallow recession
2. Little/ no decline in SPX earnings
3. Fed policy to remain tight
For example, here is the Goldman Sachs estimate:
BearTraps suggests the opposite of the “commonly accepted outlook”. That is:
- A deeper than expected recession,
- A large decline in SPX earnings,
- Fed then lowers or halts rates, and inflation goes through the roof six months after that.
Here is some intel coming out of an international investment bank discussion with the BearTraps team:
Pre-Covid, the firm’s C suite normally spoke to top Chinese Government Economic Officials weekly and that he normally visited China 4-6 times per year. The CEO hasn’t been there in 4 years and stated that there is zero interaction with the government. “Frankly I wouldn’t know whom to call.” This is a symptom of a broken relationship and may lead to dangerous supply chain problems that could lead to persistent and high inflation.
His team believes that Russia may be gearing up for a major, make or break Ukraine Winter offensive in February. This combined with an incoherent energy policy will almost certainly lead to more persistent inflation and global instability.
Bottom line, the roundtable conclusions suggested an outlook for longer recession with higher inflation camp and believes that financial assets may lose relative value relative to hard assets for many years.
To my blog readers: An important request
Many of you have asked why I’m not on Bloomberg/BNN MarketCall after nearly 15 years on the show.
Before COVID struck in early 2020 (my last show was January 2020) – my producer noted that I was rated in the top 5 most popular guests on MarketCall. Then…COVID pushed CTV to cancel all in-studio interviews with analysts, switching to online-only interviews. BNN’s online interview system doesn’t accommodate onscreen charting. All Technical Analysts (myself included) were unable to remain on the roster due to this limitation.
Now, the show is bringing analysts back into the studio. Hurray! But… It appears that the new producer(s) for the show are have yet to invite Technical Analysts back.
I’d like to ask you a favor:
If you enjoy this blog, and would like to see me back on BNN: Contact BNN and tell them you’d like to see me back on the show. Here is the contact address I found on the website (my old contacts are gone so this is all I have): [email protected]
Thankyou to those who take the time to do me this favor. Hopefully BNN is open to bringing the technical side back to MarketCall soon!
I shake my head every time I hear someone state that this recession either won’t happen at all or it will be “shallow”. 🤦♀️ I guess they could be right? That analysis just doesn’t add up to me though🤷🏼♀️
P.S. I have submitted a request to BNN via the link. Hope it helps.
It’s interesting that you bring up Goldman Keith as I keep seeing Goldman employees showing up in prominent places in government, high-level Ivy league university posts etc. You would think that they run the world. Just look at the people involved in the 2008 financial crisis. I could have saved a lot of money once when they came out with a bearish commodity call years ago. They took a nose dive the next week. They seem to have fingers in all the pies.
Thank you for passing info on to us from your sources. Happy to have sent an email to BNN as it’s an easy one. How else are we going to get specific stock recommendations out of you? 🙂
That is great to hear that BNN is bringing back in studio guests. Not sure why it took them so long. I personally do not like the format of BNN anymore and stopped watching altogether. As I am a big fan of yours I will write to them and request you be on the show because perhaps someone new out there will discover you and the great info you provide all of us current subs.
Keith How much does tax loss selling effect the charts or research you do at this time of year. There are a lot of losers to sell and over the past days some stocks are moving more then their peers on no news. Opportunity or trap?
I to have contacted BNN Thanks
Yes, you get an opportunity on oversold stocks that get sold –adding to the pressure, over the month of December. I dont recall the statistics, but its usually a pop on these stocks into the first few weeks of January, although that pop is more of a trade, not a longer termed play
Sent that email to BNN Bloomberg! Expect a call from them!
They simply can’t ignore a guy like me who has watched their programme from their very beginning when they were NOT even called BNN Bloomberg!!
Remember Bill Carrigan who used to write a column in Toronto Star on TA? Or Ron Meisels from Montreal?
I had many conversations with Ron Meisels in the past – and also had some correspondence with Bill. Ron was the guy who told me early in my career: “Always capitalize the designation Technical Analyst. We’re professionals!” – this after I used small caps in an article I had run for a newspaper- and he had read it. he called me on that –got a real kick in that, but he loved the discipline and it was a good lesson. Great guys.
Good news–see my new blog–I am back on the show–imagine that!