Somebody asked me for my opinion on bitcoin recently. I’ll cover this new-world currency briefly below. Before getting to that, I thought you would like to hear some exciting news:
ValueTrend wins Canadian Business Excellence Award
Excellence Canada and PwC Canada are pleased to present the recipients of the 2017 Canadian Business Excellence Award for Private Businesses
TORONTO, ON – Excellence Canada and PwC Canada are pleased to announce this year’s 19 private businesses that have received the Canadian Businesses Excellence Award by clearly demonstrating a strategic approach and measurable outcomes in achieving Delighted Customers, Engaged Employees, and a Culture of Innovation.
ValueTrend Wealth Management of Worldsource Securities was one of the 19 private Canadian businesses to receive this award!
This annual awards program recognizes outstanding achievements by privately-held Canadian businesses from coast-to-coast. The awards will be presented at the 2017 Canadian Business Excellence Awards for Private Businesses Luncheon on Tuesday, November 1st at the Carlu in Toronto.
For more information, click here.
It’s hard to chart bitcoin, as the electronic currency hasn’t been around that long. As with all new things, it will probably take a while before – or if – bitcoin becomes part of the mainstream. Meantime, there is plenty of risk from the investment perspective of playing this currency.
The only public ally traded investment strategy surrounding bitcoin that I could identify is the Bitcoin Investment Trust by Grayscale. No, I’d never heard of them before either. Bitcoin is a relatively new vehicle. As such, there is very limited data that a technical analyst can look at. The bitcoin trust has less than 2 years of data and is thinly traded. It’s too early to determine a longer termed trend. For the near-term, it looks like it’s trying to enter into a rhythm of an uptrend – and it is above its 200 day moving average – albeit one comprised of very little data! Clearly, this trust is consolidating at this time. Moneyflow is pretty flat- there’s not much money flowing into this trust.
Possibly its bounding off of a trendline from an oversold condition, but be aware that there is little to give me confidence in putting anything beyond speculative money into the trade.
Great job Keith and team on getting the award , congratulations.
Thanks Mike–we are pretty excited!
Congrats on the award. Your team certainly puts the effort into business excellence, it’s nice it is finally recognized.
WRT to the market you recently stated “We are currently rotating out of low beta positions to raise cash for the seasonal entry into higher beta positions”.
Oct 28th is the theoretical start of the seasonal trade. However you and others also have anticipated a correction prior to such. I’m wondering what to do with my inverse purchases. Should I sell them now as the risk is for positive seasonal trend upwards or do I still hold for a while longer anticipating the small correction to come. Thoughts?
The seasonal trade can be any time between now and November 5th – depends on who you read (Thackray, Vialoux, Hirsch).
I think the election could cause some noise–so my thoughts are to wait til first week of November, although I am really slowly legging into some stuff and out of others now–one way or the other I will be in by the election.
Congratulations on your accomplishment. Quite an honour and it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
Re Bitcoin, it’s hard to tell if you are talking about the trust or the currency. Where does one end and the other begin? I could never figure out why anybody would use Bitcoin and especially use it as a store of value. It seems to me that Bitcoin, just as any other currency, is subject to daily fluctuations against other currencies only even more so. Lots of risk. And it also seems to me that only the so-called techies and the somewhat anti-establishment types got/get involved.
And I am with you on bitcoin. I’m old school, though. I keep paper notes in a binder on my trades. I watch Seinfeld re-runs on something called a DVD. I don’t spend more than I earn, and I save for retirement just like my dad taught me to. Bitcoin is way over my head!
This blog is one of my ‘go-to’ sites for unbiased opinions on market action (perhaps because its based on technicals?) … Judging by other regular commentors here, I suspect that I’m not alone in thinking that.
Good job Keith.
Thanks Andy–your saying this gives me a “mission accomplished” feeling!
I do the blog for a few reasons–my main one being that when I write, it helps me clarify my own thoughts and analysis – and it offers a bit of a track record that you and others can look at to see if this technical stuff really works.
I also like spreading the word on technical analysis – and believe that if we get more people discussing things on a blog like this, we all learn. That’s why I wrote the 2 books SmartBounce and Sideways. Its also why I speak to groups of my peers at the CSTA–we all learn from each other in this community.
The other reason is that it provides some introduction to what I do as the Portfolio Manager responsible for the technical side at ValueTrend. People get a feel for my style when they read the blog. Its funny- lots of people who read this blog are “do it yourself” types who legitimately don’t need or desire our services–but many of those very people who may not need us to manage their own money- refer people to us who DO need a Portfolio Manager!
BTW–its great when you forward a blog to someone you think might be interested in the topic–helps spread the word!