Currency outlook

The US dollar, as measured against a basket of world currencies, has been forming a gigantic triangle since 2008, with a ceiling at 83 and a base around 75. Within the larger triangle, there seems to be a smaller one forming over recent months that could break out below 79 or above 81. Either way, the USD seems fairly range-bound (non-trending) at this time.

The Canadian dollar has also been forming a triangle –in this case since 2011. Its bumping up against the top of that triangle at around 101.50 right now. Again, a breakout will be needed on one side of this triangle before we can become too bullish or bearish on the loonie. 

The Euro (FXE) is forming a “Head & Shoulders” bottom. This is a phase-1 bullish basing pattern (see my book sideways). If, and only if, the formation breaks the neckline at around $133 on FXE, and can stay there for a few days without retreating, it would be a buy signal. Euro-denominated securities unhedged to the CDN$ would be better off on a relative basis to their hedged equivalents. But wait for a neckline breakout.

Do it yourself vs. do it to yourself

I’ve made no secret about my belief of a bullish near-termed outlook for the markets, followed by a bearish outlook  after the first or second quarter of this year. Many investors tend to do well in bull market conditions such as those we’ve experienced over the past 4 years. It is my belief that the current bull market may be long in the tooth. Individual investors may find the coming year or two a more difficult environment than they’ve experienced in recent times.

If you are concerned about protecting your assets and earning a steady, predictable return in the coming years, I ‘d like to invite you to explore the services offered by my company, ValueTrend Wealth Management. Driven by our deeply held belief in controlling risk in the current market environment, our clients enjoy a safe, steady rate of return with a low risk profile. Our tag-line, “Limit your risk. Keep your money” is not just a marketing phrase. Its a proven philosophy that has helped out clients earn consistent returns, even through the “Great Recession” of 2008 – 2009. Our triple-play combination of technical analysis, seasonal analysis and fundamental analysis offers a unique approach to wealth preservation and long-termed growth appealing to conservative investors.

We service families with total assets of $500,000 in total or greater. Our management fees are inclusive of trading costs and trustee fees -there are no hidden costs. Our typical client holding a balance of our equity and fixed income models pay a modest annual fee of around 1%/ year, all inclusive & proportionately deducted monthly. All clients receive monthly statements, quarterly performance summaries, and comprehensive yearly reviews. Eliminate the middle man by dealing directly with ValueTrend – fully licensed discretionary Portfolio Management – rather than buying some externally managed “investment product” sold to you by an Investment Advisor or sales representative. You can pick up the phone and speak directly to Portfolio Manager Keith Richards about your unique portfolio at any time. 

Contact me directly at [email protected] for a no-cost, no obligation review of your current portfolio and goals.