Bearish sentiment prevails on the stock market, which has driven money into the bond market. Things are getting rather overbought on both Canadian and US bond markets –as illustrated by the XBB iShares Canadian Bond ETF, and the TLT US long bond ETF. Note the overbought momentum studies (stochastics, RSI, MACD), and the parabolic rise Read More
Ask me anything
Gold is a simple trade
First, the good news…
. Let’s get right to the point on today’s market analysis. The good news regarding stock market indices is: The SPX, DJIA and NAZDAQ are all ahead of their 200 days SMA’s All three of the indices are approaching their old highs – they are close enough to expect that test point to occur shortly Read More
Hate mail and Love letters
At ValueTrend, we’ve been pretty concerned about the overbought conditions on the markets. Sure, we rode the rally for a while, but 3 weeks ago we brought our cash back up, and even went so far as to raise our cash levels to an aggressive 40% weighting in the Equity Platform. We made the move Read More
For what its worth
I thought I would pull some comments (excluding the individual stock names) from an update we just emailed out to our clients. I want to emphasize that these comments should not be taken as investment advice. You have to make your own decisions, or consult with a qualified advisor. I can be wrong – and Read More
The playbook
Lots of questions are coming in regarding how I might play the current market. I’ll start off by quoting a reply (with some minor edits) I gave to a reader named Chris as to how I am strategizing right now. Chris’s question came about after last week’s blog regarding the overbought market condition: “Any pullback Read More
The game plan
The following is a reprint from a client update we just sent. I thought it would be of use to readers of the blog. As I suggested on BNN recently, the market has made it back into a “vital zone of support”. My last blog also discussed this vital support zone for the markets. The S&P Read More
Contrarian stock picking
Below, I have copied the year end summary from Seeking Alpha for 2018. It may be of interest to some readers. I added to the international index returns the statistic for the TSX 300 total return, as they didn’t bother reporting that. After reviewing the “top stock losers” for the DJIA, S&P500 and NASDAQ, I Read More
The long and short of it all
Today I’d like to review the longer (macro) termed outlook via a current reading of my Bear-o-meter. I’ll re-post a chart of the S&P 500 that I’ve put up a couple of times that will point out a few potential technical targets for that index. Finally, I’d also like to review the neartermed probability targets Read More
I dont believe in Santa, but there may be an Elf rally coming soon
It’s too late for any hope of the Santa Rally for the S&P 500 or the TSX 300. In fact, we now have a “bear market/ phase 2 top” confirmation signal. For those unfamiliar with my rules– to confirm an uptrend (mid termed trend) on the weekly chart we need: Higher highs Higher lows Market Read More