David Chapman, another Technical Analyst and a man who I respect, noted in a newsletter that there are a number of factors that look pretty bearish for the stock market right now. These include: An expanding pattern on the NA indices (as I noted back in October) Inverting yield curves Negative yields on bonds in Read More
Dow Theory signalling change?
There are 6 tenets of Dow Theory- originally coined by Charles H. Dow (1851–1902), journalist, founder and first editor of The Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. The first three tell us that the market discounts all known information, that there are three trends in a market (up, down, sideways) and Read More
Trapped in a box
The SPX 500 and the TSX 300 indices seem to be trapped in boxes. The SPX is yet again testing its ceiling in the mid 2900’s. So too is the TSX as it struggles to blow through the mid 16,000’s. Both indices show an amazing commonality of divergences between the return to these old Read More
Are plastic bottle makers going to be under pressure?
Something like 16 countries have signed on to banning single use plastics (bottles, bags, etc) – many of whom have an implementation date in the next 1-2 years. Canada is one of them. Despite the fact that Canada is not a major contributor to the plastic waste crises – I think it’s a good thing Read More
Enough to make your head spin!
Wow. The market sure is neurotic lately. Bullish, or bearish…its like the weather in Alberta. Albertans like to say “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few hours – and you’ll get new weather!” Similarly – If you don’t like the current market trend – just wait a couple of weeks – and Read More
Bear-o-meter in no-mans land
If you examine the Bear-o-meter diagram, below, you will see 3 zones, represented as: Higher risk: 0-3 Neutral risk/reward 3-5 Lower risk: 5-8 You might say that the readings of 3 and 5 are a little indecisive. After all, they are right on the border of moving between two risk/reward zones. For example – Read More
Bonds are overbought
Bearish sentiment prevails on the stock market, which has driven money into the bond market. Things are getting rather overbought on both Canadian and US bond markets –as illustrated by the XBB iShares Canadian Bond ETF, and the TLT US long bond ETF. Note the overbought momentum studies (stochastics, RSI, MACD), and the parabolic rise Read More
Ask me anything
Gold is a simple trade
First, the good news…
. Let’s get right to the point on today’s market analysis. The good news regarding stock market indices is: The SPX, DJIA and NAZDAQ are all ahead of their 200 days SMA’s All three of the indices are approaching their old highs – they are close enough to expect that test point to occur shortly Read More
Hate mail and Love letters
At ValueTrend, we’ve been pretty concerned about the overbought conditions on the markets. Sure, we rode the rally for a while, but 3 weeks ago we brought our cash back up, and even went so far as to raise our cash levels to an aggressive 40% weighting in the Equity Platform. We made the move Read More