Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with my “Bear-o-meter” risk/reward compilation. Briefly, the Bear-o-meter is a compilation of some trend, breadth, sentiment and momentum indicators. They examine the S&P 500 from a longer termed risk/reward perspective. While the compilation’s readings can often signal market changes, it’s not really meant to be so much Read More
Opportunities in the FANG’s / tech leaders
Don Vialoux notes on his blog that seasonal influences can be magnified during mid-term elections. I might add my own observations unique for this year—that is the influence the current trade talks. Markets might see lots of uncertainty for as trade wars escalate over the scary months of September and/or October – which are the Read More
Market musings
Sometimes, we have to just “muse” on the markets rather than make prognostications. Particularly, if things are at an inflection point. I feel that both the US and Canadian markets may be at such a point right now. The US and Canadian indices are attempting to bust their highs – although not in synchronicity. Will Read More
Three themes for the second half
My market outlook for the coming months is relatively neutral. At ValueTrend, we tend to follow some reliable factors when assessing potential market strength. None of our quantitative factors suggest a massively overbought or overvalued market. Still, we don’t see an undervalued market either. Here are the three themes we feel are going to be Read More
Bear-o-meter still neutral
The Bear-o-meter has been covered numerous times in this blog. Briefly, it is a risk/reward measurement against the US markets. It is not a pure market timing tool – rather, it gives us an idea of the current environment stacks up against historical risk and reward tendencies. I rank 12 indicators that fall into 5 Read More
Drilling down the Dow: A macro, to neartermed analysis
I’d like to offer this analysis of the current condition of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as both a market commentary, and as a Technical Analysis primer. The following is a good way for you to create your own step-by-step process to analyse any market or security. The process doesn’t have to be sophisticated Read More
Earnings beats dont mean the market will rise
On my last blog, I noted some of the reasons why the markets might take a breather over the next two months. Today, I read another potential reason why the market might struggle over the near term. According to sentimentrader, markets tend to do well immediately after a period of below average earnings –ie, where Read More
Rotation of the guard?
Given the correction we seem to be getting – which was indicated as likely on my blog last week – I thought I’d look at the major US sectors to see how the defensive names are doing. That is, how the utilities and staples, might be faring. Sometimes you will see an initial move into Read More
Bear-o-meter bewilderment
Funny situation, this. I took a Bear-o-meter reading today (Wed. June 13). The indicators read as follows: Primary & secondary trend (200 day, 50 day SMA): Bullish Breadth (AD line, Dow Theory): Bullish Breadth momentum (New high/low, % stocks over 50 day SMA): Neutral PE ratio: Neutral Sentiment (Smart/Dumb, VIX, Put/Call): Bearish—with one possible Read More
Is this the real life, or is this just fantasy?
Regular readers know I refer to 1970’s and 1980’s rock lyrics periodically to inspire my blog topics. Today’s blog is brought to you by Queens hit song “Bohemian Rhapsody“. The song begins by asking if this is the real life, or is it just fantasy… I might ask the same about the stock market. Much Read More