I try to be as rule based as I can within a stock trading environment. Readers who have followed this blog consistently will know that we at ValueTrend held 22% cash over the summer based on some of those rules (Bear-o-meter readings, seasonality). We’ve also been following some buy-in rules in an attempt to sensibly Read More
Blood in the streets
During the Panic of 1871 in Paris, when everyone was selling, Baron Rothschild was buying. When asked about his buying decision, Rothschild apparently replied that “The time to buy is when there’s blood running in the streets.” As noted in my “Smell of Fear” blog, there are some quantitative factors that we can watch for Read More
The smell of fear
“To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude” John Templeton Years ago Leslie Nelson did a movie called “Naked gun: The smell of fear”. If you like slapstick comedy, you may enjoy it. Human beings, like most other mammals, are pre programmed to Read More
Bear-o-meter reading plummets
Do a quick search on the search bar for this blog and you will find plenty of entries under the Bear-o-meter. I try to read the compilation monthly. The last reading was on September 17th, where it had moved up from its August reading of “4” to a more bullish reading of “5”. Interestingly, the Read More
Tech and Consumer Discretionary sector rebalance, and what it means to you
The S&P technology sector, as reflected in the SPDR ETF “XLK-US”, was overhauled this week. It no longer holds some big players like Facebook, Google, Twitter and Activision Blizzard. So too was the S&P Consumer Discretionary index (XLY-US) – it lost big players like Netflix, Comcast and Disney. All of these stocks are being shuffled Read More
Interesting…
Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with my “Bear-o-meter” risk/reward compilation. Briefly, the Bear-o-meter is a compilation of some trend, breadth, sentiment and momentum indicators. They examine the S&P 500 from a longer termed risk/reward perspective. While the compilation’s readings can often signal market changes, it’s not really meant to be so much Read More
Opportunities in the FANG’s / tech leaders
Don Vialoux notes on his blog that seasonal influences can be magnified during mid-term elections. I might add my own observations unique for this year—that is the influence the current trade talks. Markets might see lots of uncertainty for as trade wars escalate over the scary months of September and/or October – which are the Read More
Market musings
Sometimes, we have to just “muse” on the markets rather than make prognostications. Particularly, if things are at an inflection point. I feel that both the US and Canadian markets may be at such a point right now. The US and Canadian indices are attempting to bust their highs – although not in synchronicity. Will Read More
Three themes for the second half
My market outlook for the coming months is relatively neutral. At ValueTrend, we tend to follow some reliable factors when assessing potential market strength. None of our quantitative factors suggest a massively overbought or overvalued market. Still, we don’t see an undervalued market either. Here are the three themes we feel are going to be Read More
Bear-o-meter still neutral
The Bear-o-meter has been covered numerous times in this blog. Briefly, it is a risk/reward measurement against the US markets. It is not a pure market timing tool – rather, it gives us an idea of the current environment stacks up against historical risk and reward tendencies. I rank 12 indicators that fall into 5 Read More