The challenge: everyone’s onboard the same train The most crowded trades in the recent bull market have been: US stock market in general US growth, in particular US dollars US Treasuries Large-caps & tech giants. Larry McDonald of Beartraps suggests that the deflationary environment over the past decade has helped all these trades. He suggests Read More
Have your cake & eat it too in an overbought market
Above is the YTD performance numbers (end July 2020) for most of the major indices, courtesy Invesco. The equity market standouts are the SPX, the NASDAQ, and Shanghai. Gold has been the biggest mover of the non-equity categories. One might wonder why the Dow Industrial Index had such a negative return in light of Read More
Investor sentiment reaching a dangerous level again
The basis of sentiment studies is that when too many investors – particularly retail investors – are bullish, its a contrary signal suggesting things are overbought/ due for an eventual pullback of some sort. Conversely, when too many investors are bearish, its a contrary signal suggesting the market has sold off too much from pessimism, Read More
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get”- Warren Buffet
This is a technical analysis site, colored with the occasional tidbit of fundamental analysis/ political policy/ world policy view where I deem it useful. I usually like to concentrate on the technical view, given my personal history and expertise in that subject. Lets look at some technical and fundamentals surrounding the growth vs. value market Read More
Growth stocks vs. value stocks. Which to own?
“Growth” stocks appear to be rather overbought when compared to their “Value” stock siblings. The chart below is that of the iShares Morningstar large capped growth index ETF (JKE). Its top holdings will not shock you. AMZN, MSFT, FB, GOOGL, V, NFLX. In other words, the same names that have driven the market of late. Read More
More market musings
Lately I’ve been posting the odd blog with musings and thoughts of my own, and some drawn from various outside sources. This blog follows that pattern. Note that its less narrative, and more “clipped”–I’m trying to feed you with lots of interesting points where real opportunities might reside, without too much of my own noise Read More
Does it matter to investors who wins the US election?
I read somewhere that lower corporate taxes (in the USA) were responsible for about 10 per cent of share price improvement during the recent bull market. That of course doesn’t apply to Canada’s absolutely flat returns on the back of less accommodation in personal and corporate taxes since Trudeau’s win in 2015. Canada’s political problems Read More
Trading views for the NASDAQ
Above is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ, with the simple Rate of Change indicator below it. The chart goes back to 1980, so it provides a decent historical perspective. ROC is a simple momentum indicator.It simply measures the percent change in price from one period to the next – this one being a Read More
Random charts and musings
No topic today. Just a bunch of interesting charts I’ve been privy to recently. Proceed with Caution SPX price vs. SPX profit margins – chart below: How profitable have the companies comprising the S&P 500 been vs the relative performance of their stocks? History shows us that the decline in profit margins tends to drag Read More
Be ready for anything in May
Stocks gaped DOWN the most ever in March. Stocks gaped UP the most ever in April. Let me say that again…these were the biggest moving equivalent (i.e. March & April returns vs. historic March & April returns) months for the S&P 500 in its history. Ever. But wait, despite these two massive outsider months…the VIX, Read More