Given the bearish movements of late, I have had a few enquiries as to how one could hedge their portfolio to reduce downside. As I noted on my last blog – a break of 2800 on the SPX is worrisome. If the break lasts more than a few days – one would be forgiven for Read More
Where we be at, Mr. Market?
Street lingo for asking where someone is located goes something like this: “Where you be at?”. I’m asking this question to the market every day in my job. “Where you be at, Mr. Market?” Surprisingly, Mr. Market can speak. He speaks through the language of price pattern, breadth, sentiment, and volume. Many of those nuances Read More
China trade negotiations also a trading opportunity for the stock market?
It is almost a fact that the US/China trade deal will be reached sooner rather than later. I feel that the current selloff may be an excellent short termed trading opportunity. It is quite likely that markets will remain choppy for the next week, or weeks, until the agreement appears to become more settled. Thereafter, Read More
A brief history of time, space, and Bear-o-meter signals
A few years back, I did a paper for the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysis) on my Bear-o-meter. In the paper, I noted signals of the Bear-o-meter where there was a change from the “bullish zone” – which is a reading of 5 or higher- into “Bearish” zone – which is 2 or lower. Read More
Got junk?
My friend Brooke Thackray writes a newsletter that ties his macro technical views into seasonal plays. Brooke, for those who don’t know him, is one of the original people in Canada to study seasonal trends. In fact, I met Brooke some 20 years ago after I read his first book – Time In – Time Read More
Bear-o-meter reads bullish!
Before getting into this month’s Bear-o-meter reading and interpretation, I thought I would quote Larry McDonald – who’s institutional research reports I have been subscribing to for several years. Larry’s research isn’t cheap, but he’s one of the more accurate analysts on the street. His background as head junk bond trader at Lehman’s (which was Read More
First, the good news…
. Let’s get right to the point on today’s market analysis. The good news regarding stock market indices is: The SPX, DJIA and NAZDAQ are all ahead of their 200 days SMA’s All three of the indices are approaching their old highs – they are close enough to expect that test point to occur shortly Read More
Money never sleeps
The movie “Wall Street” featuring Michael Douglas and Charlie Sheen (in Charlie’s pre-weird days) is a Wall Street classic. I’ve watched the movie more than once, and many of you may have seen it as well. They made a sequel to the movie called Wall Street: Money never sleeps. It kinda sucked. As a lady Read More
Whaz-up with da’ markets?
About a week ago, we got a neartermed timing model “sell signal”. This lines up with the “cautious” reading I got from the more macro-viewing Bear-o-meter on February 4th https://www.valuetrend.ca/bear-o-meter-drops-to-cautious-zone/ Below is the chart of my neartermed timing system signalling a sell. This system, which I have posted numerous times on this blog, is pretty Read More
Bear-o-meter drops to cautious zone
Those who have been following this blog for a while will be aware of my Bear-o-meter. It’s a compilation of numerous factors measured mostly against the S&P 500 under the headings of trend, breadth, sentiment, value and seasonality. Each factor is scored and assigned a positive, negative or neutral number. Some of the factors Read More