Lately I’ve been posting the odd blog with musings and thoughts of my own, and some drawn from various outside sources. This blog follows that pattern. Note that its less narrative, and more “clipped”–I’m trying to feed you with lots of interesting points where real opportunities might reside, without too much of my own noise Read More
Does it matter to investors who wins the US election?
I read somewhere that lower corporate taxes (in the USA) were responsible for about 10 per cent of share price improvement during the recent bull market. That of course doesn’t apply to Canada’s absolutely flat returns on the back of less accommodation in personal and corporate taxes since Trudeau’s win in 2015. Canada’s political problems Read More
Bear-o-meter remains in cautious zone
The Bear-o-meter looks at trend, breadth, seasonality, sentiment and value. Last month, I noted that the indicator sat at “1” on a scale from 0-8., where 0 is bearish/ high risk, and 8 is very low risk! The indicator remains at a cautious “2”. Yes, the market rose over May. This helped add a few Read More
Have your cake & eat it too.
I’ve noted here that a handful (11, actually) of growth stocks have been responsible for the majority of the post-March rally. The S&P 500 is down only 5% since the high, but the average stock is still down 11% (small caps are down 20%). This market has many legendary Portfolio Managers scratching their heads; Buffett, Read More
FOMO: Learning from a legend, and the next stocks to buy
Incompetent people are at a double disadvantage since they are not only incompetent, but unaware of it. Behavioral Scientist, April 13, 2020 The above quote echos my thoughts towards the current Prime Minister of Canada and quite probably the US President . The thing I like about truly competent people is that they can make Read More
Does the FED trump traditional analysis?
I noted in a prior blog that the Fed is likely the major factor behind the current rally. Does the Fed trump analytics over the longer term? That is a question that many of my fellow analysts and Portfolio Manager colleagues have been discussing lately. The above charts illustrate the forward returns of the S&P Read More
Patience
There are a few signs of concentrated leadership and speculative optimism on the markets right now. As noted in this blog, we have disturbingly low market breadth, with a strong concentration of the recent rally coming from the “stay at home” industry. Not so much from the rest of the economy. Combine this with the Read More
Inflection point
The S&P 500 is at an inflection point. It sits right below the 200 day (40 week) simple moving average (SMA). It is testing a resistance point (2950-ish) that has failed recently. Will it break? Its important that we acknowledge both the case for a breakout, and the case against it. An open mind is Read More
Greater fools, unite!
My friend Brooke Thackray, Research Analyst for the Horizons Seasonal ETF, (HAC-TSX) writes a monthly update, much like we at ValueTrend do. For those interested in receiving Brooke’s newsletter, click here to subscribe. For those who wish to subscribe to the ValueTrend newsletter, click here. I am not trying to be promotional for either newsletter Read More
Sell in May and go away? Bear-o-meter says “yes”!
Before I get to the new Bear-o-meter reading, I thought I’d post an interesting chart created by Jason Castelli, Technical Analyst with Raymond James. For the record, Jason notes that he didn’t re-capitalize the index (a feat that would be cumbersome, and likely inaccurate even if attempted). As Jason notes: While the chart is not Read More