Before I get to the new Bear-o-meter reading, I thought I’d post an interesting chart created by Jason Castelli, Technical Analyst with Raymond James. For the record, Jason notes that he didn’t re-capitalize the index (a feat that would be cumbersome, and likely inaccurate even if attempted). As Jason notes: While the chart is not Read More
Be ready for anything in May
Stocks gaped DOWN the most ever in March. Stocks gaped UP the most ever in April. Let me say that again…these were the biggest moving equivalent (i.e. March & April returns vs. historic March & April returns) months for the S&P 500 in its history. Ever. But wait, despite these two massive outsider months…the VIX, Read More
The plan: part 2
I’m doing a webinar for the MoneyShow and you can join in – Technical Lessons from Past Bear Markets. Its on May 7th 1:20 pm – 1:50 pm. Here is the link. Just sign up at the bottom of that page. As promised in my last blog, I am going to present you with Read More
The plan: Part 1
This blog is part 1 of a 2-part breakdown of the bear market strategy that we are currently following. Part 2 will be posted by this Thursday. Over these two blogs, I hope to relay ways that you can minimize your downside, and recover any losses you’ve experienced in the most efficient way possible. To Read More
The Bull market is dead! Long live the bull market!
According to sentimentrader.com – When the S&P’s weekly RSI momentum went from oversold to normal (>45), the S&P often struggled over the next 2-4 weeks. Many post-crash rallies are followed by some form of a pullback, so this makes sense. Even “normal” corrections (ie not crashes), such as those I’ve highlighted in the chart below Read More
Trading with the odds
On this blog I noted a few technical resistance points to watch on the S&P 500. They were, 2650 (cracked), 2750 (also cracked) and finally, the most significant resistance point at 2850. The S&P 500 is back trying to test that 2850 level today. This, as Q1 earnings season begins. Lets see if that cracks. Read More
Charts to watch
Here are some charts I am following for various reasons. I’ll look at the loonie, WTI oil, Canadian oil, the SPX, the TSX and Europe. If you have any broad market or sector charts you’d like me to address, please put them in the comments at the bottom. Here goes: Canadian dollar The loonie’s Read More
Bear-o-meter back to neutral
Before getting started, I wanted to note that we are publishing a newsletter update today. This is a version of the client newsletter we do. Sometimes the newsletter mirrors this blog, but sometimes it presents differing thoughts. Today’s newsletter is one of those differing messages. It outlines our in-house strategy for the coming weeks. I Read More
Another collage of insights, opinions, and ponderings
I’m not very confident in the complete accuracy of any analysis out there, including my own. How’s that for a confidence inspiring opening? Fundamental indicators, for example, do not account for a once in a hundred year pandemic. As Jason Goepfert of sentimentrader says “The outcome of this recession really boils down to a battle Read More
Green shoots growing out of the cow patties
I recall seeing green shoots sticking out of the cow patties in a farmers field on a ride one day. This market has certainly been a field of cow patties. But like the cow field, there are some signs that the bounce (green shoots) we are seeing today may follow through for a few days Read More