Rock band REM sang a truly great song called “It’s the end of the world (as we know it)”. Many of you have heard the song, I’m sure, but if you wish to marvel at how lyrist Mike Mills can carry off a fairly rapid flow of complex lyrics – click here. Today, I’d like Read More
Have you seen the VIX?
The VIX (often called the “fear index”) has moved from the status of being suppressed for most of last year into it’s more typical volatile status in 2018. Interestingly – in 2017, the market was so low in volatility that the VIX hovered near 9-10 for the better part of that year. This was an Read More
Monday madness: Is today’s selloff a reason to panic?
I try to be as rule based as I can within a stock trading environment. Readers who have followed this blog consistently will know that we at ValueTrend held 22% cash over the summer based on some of those rules (Bear-o-meter readings, seasonality). We’ve also been following some buy-in rules in an attempt to sensibly Read More
My buy signal
I’ve noted in my blogs over the past two weeks that I’ve received positive indications from my Bear-o-meter for a lower risk stock environment– with the only remaining signal needed as a move by the S&P 500 (SPX) over its 200 day (40 week) SMA. If you’d like to see a video with greater details Read More
Bear-o-meter is not scary
Happy Halloween—scary markets and all! What a difference a month makes. On my last Bear-o-meter reading, taken October 3rd, we got a decisive “High Risk” reading of “1”.. As many of you may be aware, the Bear-o-meter is a compilation of 11 indicators that are assigned positive, neutral or bearish numeral values. The Bear-o-meter is Read More
The smell of fear
“To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude” John Templeton Years ago Leslie Nelson did a movie called “Naked gun: The smell of fear”. If you like slapstick comedy, you may enjoy it. Human beings, like most other mammals, are pre programmed to Read More
Special report: When to enter the market again
I’ll assume you paid attention to my blogs and/ or BNN cautionary stance over the summer – or made that decision on your own accord. If so – you likely raised cash a few months back and reduced some of the recent market pain on your portfolio. However – you may have a question. The Read More
Acting like a scout
The scouts have a motto: “Be prepared”. I try to ascribed to this philosophy – originally brought to the Boy Scouts in 1907 by Baden Powell. As this blog is written, North American markets are selling off. We don’t know how deep the correction will go. I will only say that: I was prepared, and Read More
Bear-o-meter reading plummets
Do a quick search on the search bar for this blog and you will find plenty of entries under the Bear-o-meter. I try to read the compilation monthly. The last reading was on September 17th, where it had moved up from its August reading of “4” to a more bullish reading of “5”. Interestingly, the Read More
Interesting…
Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with my “Bear-o-meter” risk/reward compilation. Briefly, the Bear-o-meter is a compilation of some trend, breadth, sentiment and momentum indicators. They examine the S&P 500 from a longer termed risk/reward perspective. While the compilation’s readings can often signal market changes, it’s not really meant to be so much Read More