Traditional bowling involves a “gutter” on each side of the lane. If you throw a bad ball, your ball goes into one of the two gutters. Bumper bowling eliminates that problem. Bowl a bad ball, and your ball bounces off of a bumper that sits inside of the gutter. A ball thrown too far to Read More
Damned if you do…
The Bear-o-meter is a risk/ reward indicator. It’s a compilation of indicators falling under general classifications of Breadth, Value, Trend, Breadth-momentum, Sentiment and Seasonality. The Bear-o-meter assigns risk on a scale of 0-8. A reading of 3 or under is generally a higher risk market. A reading of 3-5 is about “average” for a risk/reward Read More
On the subject of risk….
At ValueTrend, we try to control risk in a variety of ways. They include: Trend analysis: This trumps all other risk controls. We tend to be mid-termed traders, so we watch weekly charts. If the market or a stock remains above its support zone, or, if it remains in an uptrend (higher highs, higher lows) Read More
Short termed timing of the SPX
Some of my long termed readers might recall the “Near termed timing system” I look at for finessing entry/exit points. It’s actually fairly reliable in its signals–albeit very, very whippy. Because its so whippy, it’s not necessarily something you want to trade off of. Executing buy and sells based on this systems signals will have Read More
Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.
Roughly every month, I try to post the results of a compilation of financial indicators that measure the current risk/reward picture for US markets. Long-time readers are familiar with this compilation, which I call the “Bear-o-meter”. For those new to my blog: The Bear-o-meter is a risk/reward measurement against the US markets. It is not Read More
Learning to walk
A reader sent me an email recently asking about a chart I had posted on a blog many months ago. Thanks to Paul in Calgary for inspiring the revival of this chart, which illustrates the period between 1997 to now. Scroll down to view it. You’ll note on the left side of the chart the Read More
Overbought, but not over
Today’s blog is taken from the recent ValueTrend update newsletter. I’ve added a bit of colour, so even if you subscribe, bear with me. Some of us who were born in the early 1960’s might remember the “coming of age” movies that came out during our adolescence. One such movie (and I don’t necessarily recommend Read More
Is market breadth telling the true tale?
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, not the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change. Charles Darwin I view breadth as a sign of a markets health. Traditional market breadth indicators are things like: New high/low indicators % of all stocks on Read More
Bear-o-meter suggests current selloff is reducing market risk
Today’s blog is a little longer than usual. Please take the time to read its entirety. This one is important. I think things may be setting up for an opportunity in the markets soon, with one caveat. Read on… The Bear-o-meter is a risk/ reward indicator. It’s a compilation of indicators falling under general classifications Read More
Seasonals and technicals lining up
I thought I would start today’s blog off with a seasonal commentary by Don Vialoux – one of Canada’s leading seasonal experts: “The weakest period for North American equity markets is from mid-September to mid-October while other developed equity markets in the world tend reach a seasonal low in the first half of October. Supplemental Read More