About a week ago, we got a neartermed timing model “sell signal”. This lines up with the “cautious” reading I got from the more macro-viewing Bear-o-meter on February 4th https://www.valuetrend.ca/bear-o-meter-drops-to-cautious-zone/ Below is the chart of my neartermed timing system signalling a sell. This system, which I have posted numerous times on this blog, is pretty Read More
Bear-o-meter drops to cautious zone
Those who have been following this blog for a while will be aware of my Bear-o-meter. It’s a compilation of numerous factors measured mostly against the S&P 500 under the headings of trend, breadth, sentiment, value and seasonality. Each factor is scored and assigned a positive, negative or neutral number. Some of the factors Read More
Dazed & confused
I’m in my late 50’s, so my highschool years put me into the heart of the 1970’s –where the greatest rock n’ roll bands of all time produced their timeless masterpieces. At no time since the 1970’s has there been such iconic rock music produced. Sure, the 1960’s produced the ground breakers like the Read More
For what its worth
I thought I would pull some comments (excluding the individual stock names) from an update we just emailed out to our clients. I want to emphasize that these comments should not be taken as investment advice. You have to make your own decisions, or consult with a qualified advisor. I can be wrong – and Read More
The playbook
Lots of questions are coming in regarding how I might play the current market. I’ll start off by quoting a reply (with some minor edits) I gave to a reader named Chris as to how I am strategizing right now. Chris’s question came about after last week’s blog regarding the overbought market condition: “Any pullback Read More
One with the market
“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them they’ve been fooled.” Mark Twain At this point, a lot of people are forming theories and opinions about the market. The bulls are theorizing that the economy is going to continue expanding and earnings will continue growing for a prosperous stock market. The bears are Read More
The game plan
The following is a reprint from a client update we just sent. I thought it would be of use to readers of the blog. As I suggested on BNN recently, the market has made it back into a “vital zone of support”. My last blog also discussed this vital support zone for the markets. The S&P Read More
The long and short of it all
Today I’d like to review the longer (macro) termed outlook via a current reading of my Bear-o-meter. I’ll re-post a chart of the S&P 500 that I’ve put up a couple of times that will point out a few potential technical targets for that index. Finally, I’d also like to review the neartermed probability targets Read More
Bear market confirmation
As noted on this blog the market is ripe for a near termed rally. Yesterdays Boxing Day blip pushed the Dow up 1000 points. But I note on today’s futures that the market looks to open lower – this, after the largest boxing day rally on record. As I projected on my Friday Bloomberg BNN appearance I Read More
I dont believe in Santa, but there may be an Elf rally coming soon
It’s too late for any hope of the Santa Rally for the S&P 500 or the TSX 300. In fact, we now have a “bear market/ phase 2 top” confirmation signal. For those unfamiliar with my rules– to confirm an uptrend (mid termed trend) on the weekly chart we need: Higher highs Higher lows Market Read More