The Bear-o-meter has been covered numerous times in this blog. Briefly, it is a risk/reward measurement against the US markets. It is not a pure market timing tool – rather, it gives us an idea of the current environment stacks up against historical risk and reward tendencies. I rank 12 indicators that fall into 5 Read More
Drilling down the Dow: A macro, to neartermed analysis
I’d like to offer this analysis of the current condition of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as both a market commentary, and as a Technical Analysis primer. The following is a good way for you to create your own step-by-step process to analyse any market or security. The process doesn’t have to be sophisticated Read More
Some indicators suggest a selling opportunity is approaching
The S&P 500 is currently testing a level of technical resistance on its daily chart. The level of 2800 has been tested a few times unsuccessfully since February. On a shorter termed timing basis, we can turn to my Short Termed Timing model as applied to the S&P 500’s daily chart. I have noted this Read More
Nothing to see here. Move along, now.
Its no surprise to see the S&P 500 pull back a bit. On Wednesday of last week, I noted that the ValueTrend Bear-o-meter was on the cusp of moving into bearish territory. Here’s the blog. Further evidence for a correction: If you look at the chart below, you’ll note that 2800 was a key Read More
Bear-o-meter bewilderment
Funny situation, this. I took a Bear-o-meter reading today (Wed. June 13). The indicators read as follows: Primary & secondary trend (200 day, 50 day SMA): Bullish Breadth (AD line, Dow Theory): Bullish Breadth momentum (New high/low, % stocks over 50 day SMA): Neutral PE ratio: Neutral Sentiment (Smart/Dumb, VIX, Put/Call): Bearish—with one possible Read More
Is this the real life, or is this just fantasy?
Regular readers know I refer to 1970’s and 1980’s rock lyrics periodically to inspire my blog topics. Today’s blog is brought to you by Queens hit song “Bohemian Rhapsody“. The song begins by asking if this is the real life, or is it just fantasy… I might ask the same about the stock market. Much Read More
Buy & hold vs. technical trading
Before I forget, here is last week’s BNN show. A reader emailed me directly and asked me to give an honest appraisal on the pluses and minuses of using a more active approach such as we at ValueTrend do. This blog is an edited version of my response to his question. What’s the Read More
Bear-o-meter goes bearish
I did the full-blown Bear-o-meter reading today, and it came out bearish. The current reading is a “2”. As a refresher: The compilation assigns “points” to a number of different factors. If a factor is bullish, it can get a +1 or at most a +2 reading. If its bearish it can get a -1. Read More
This will be my sell trigger
I expect to reduce some equity exposure based on seasonality trends in the next 1-2 weeks. However, that selling process will be limited to 10-15% of the equities we hold within the ValueTrend Equity Platform. A more serious sell signal is my hard and fast sell rule of “a lower low and break of the Read More
That’s more like it!
I noted through several blogs in 2017 that the runaway upward trending market was unsustainable – and dangerous. This almost complete lack of volatility in the stock markets was a dangerous pattern, likely to end with a thud . I have also noted on this blog that markets historically go through periods of volatility after Read More