Gaps are a sign of excess. They are formed between two bars on a chart – represented by a space between the close of one bar (daily or weekly) and the open of the other bar. Gaps occur because investors are so excited (positive) that they bid prices higher than yesterday’s close right from the Read More
Shorter termed patterns to consider
As regular readers know, since mid-summer we’ve been POUNDING THE TABLE saying that stock markets were too focused on overpriced, overbought technology and “stay at home” names like Amazon, Zoom, Peloton, Facebook, etc. It took patience to avoid buying these overdone names. But we held our ground. Instead of buying hype, ValueTrend bought value stocks. We Read More
Bear-o-meter goes bullish
The Bear-o-meter is a risk/reward measurement tool that I’ve been using since 2013. It’s a compilation of indicators falling under general classifications of: Breadth Value Trend Breadth momentum Sentiment Seasonality As many of my regular readers know, the Bear-o-meter assigns risk on a scale of 0-8. A reading of 3 or under is generally a Read More
The future ain’t what it used to be
I’ve made it clear that we at ValueTrend have been bearish coming into the US election. We’ve recently been holding 30% cash coming into this event, although we spent a bit of that cash in today’s selloff. This stance has paid off – as our Investment Platforms have substantially reduced the volatility over both September Read More
Three investment strategies for the final quarter of 2020.
Two weeks ago, I noted on this blog that we were buying volatility (VIX) ETF’s to play the potential for a renewed spike in volatility. This, after a period of retail investor complacency and a bearish smart/dumb money signal – noted here. After a couple of days of market downside this week, it appears that Read More
Value may be your best investment choice in 2021
Growth stocks have been the place to be since the COVID crash. The iShares Morningstar Growth Index ETF is very similar in appearance to the supposedly broader diversified S&P 500 index. Note the surge in the angle of ascent on the value stock index since March (chart below). Last week I blogged on some divergences Read More
Smart money may be selling this market.
The S&P 500 has been in a pattern that is considered bearish by some market observers. This pattern plays off of an old theory suggesting that “dumb money” trades in the morning, while “smart money” trades in the afternoon. Here is how it works: Dumb money is thought to move in the morning. Retail investors Read More
4 ways to help offset US election volatility
An uncontested election seems to be priced by the stock market…which is interesting when you consider that both sides (Trump/Biden) have stated they will contest a close election. A contested election would likely result in a short termed stock market selloff in early November. Thus, in my view, we should consider how we might manage Read More
Market rally may continue, but beware the “niggles”
I own an older model Porsche. I like it because its a purist car – a true drivers car for those who want absolute connection to their vehicle. Manual tranny (essential for the purist driver) with a short shifter and race clutch, hand brake for drifting at the track (should you choose to do so), Read More
This time ain’t different
I’ve been ranting on (and on…) about the over valued tech stocks, and their effect on the market for several months now. True, my rantings made me appear misled, as the market raged on (and on). I even recently cautioned a friend that the timing (not the concept) of buying index ETF’s at this time Read More