Today’s blog is a little longer than usual. Please take the time to read its entirety. This one is important. I think things may be setting up for an opportunity in the markets soon, with one caveat. Read on… The Bear-o-meter is a risk/ reward indicator. It’s a compilation of indicators falling under general classifications Read More
Seasonals and technicals lining up
I thought I would start today’s blog off with a seasonal commentary by Don Vialoux – one of Canada’s leading seasonal experts: “The weakest period for North American equity markets is from mid-September to mid-October while other developed equity markets in the world tend reach a seasonal low in the first half of October. Supplemental Read More
It’s the economy, stupid: what an impeachment may mean to the markets
Today’s chart (courtesy of www.freestockcharts.com) focuses on two Presidential impeachment enquiries, and the market’s reaction to these events. I wanted to explore just how much impact an impeachment enquiry of President Trump might have on the stock market. Interestingly, both of these enquiries took place within a prolonged sideways market pattern. It should not escape Read More
September head-fakes, and my current strategy for the winter
Boxers sometimes use a technique where they move their head into an unprotected zone where the opponent will be tempted to take a swing at it. Meanwhile, the boxer has quickly moved his head back into the protected zone behind his gloves. When the opponent is swinging towards the “empty air”, he or she Read More
Insiders rotating out of FAANGs, into value. Bear-o-meter goes neutral
Every month I like to take a reading of something that I like to call the “Bear-o-meter”. The Bear-o-meter is a compilation of a few trend, breadth, sentiment, value and seasonal factors. It assigns positive, neutral or negative ratings to each indicator, and the results are totalled. Readings fall between 0-8. That is divided into Read More
Is this the end of the choppy market?
Don and Jon Vialoux note in their “Timing the Market” report “Before the summer comes to an end, more volatility may be in store. September has been the weakest month for equities, on average, over the past 50 years. The S&P 500 Index has shed an average of 0.7% with only 44% of Septembers showing Read More
Yield inversion and the megaphone. Danger signs?
Here we go again. The SPX, despite its rally to new highs in late July of around 3025, has had more trouble breaking through 2950. It’s hit that level twice in the past. Looking at the chart below, you’ll see a failed attempt at or near 2950 back in October of 2018, and then again Read More
Neartermed volatility up on “TTT” (Trumps Trade Tweets)
I simply had to share this meme with my readers today. Seriously funny stuff. As Homer Simpson (The Simpsons) once said, “Its funny because its true!”. I agree. Certainly, Trumps Tweets do seem to be throwing the markets around quite a bit lately. Seriously, sometimes I feel he needs an editor to walk beside Read More
On the one hand….
David Chapman, another Technical Analyst and a man who I respect, noted in a newsletter that there are a number of factors that look pretty bearish for the stock market right now. These include: An expanding pattern on the NA indices (as I noted back in October) Inverting yield curves Negative yields on bonds in Read More
Checking under the hood
I spoke to a client the other day about how I look at markets by using a combination of trend and risk analysis. Trend is reviewed via the price pattern on a weekly chart, including volume and the 200 day (40 week) simple moving average. Risk, on the other hand, is evaluated using a compilation Read More