The SPX 500 and the TSX 300 indices seem to be trapped in boxes. The SPX is yet again testing its ceiling in the mid 2900’s. So too is the TSX as it struggles to blow through the mid 16,000’s. Both indices show an amazing commonality of divergences between the return to these Read More
Enough to make your head spin!
Wow. The market sure is neurotic lately. Bullish, or bearish…its like the weather in Alberta. Albertans like to say “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few hours – and you’ll get new weather!” Similarly – If you don’t like the current market trend – just wait a couple of weeks – and Read More
Bear-o-meter in no-mans land
If you examine the Bear-o-meter diagram, below, you will see 3 zones, represented as: Higher risk: 0-3 Neutral risk/reward 3-5 Lower risk: 5-8 You might say that the readings of 3 and 5 are a little indecisive. After all, they are right on the border of moving between two risk/reward zones. For example – Read More
Hedging portfolio risk
Given the bearish movements of late, I have had a few enquiries as to how one could hedge their portfolio to reduce downside. As I noted on my last blog – a break of 2800 on the SPX is worrisome. If the break lasts more than a few days – one would be forgiven for Read More
Where we be at, Mr. Market?
Street lingo for asking where someone is located goes something like this: “Where you be at?”. I’m asking this question to the market every day in my job. “Where you be at, Mr. Market?” Surprisingly, Mr. Market can speak. He speaks through the language of price pattern, breadth, sentiment, and volume. Many of those nuances Read More
China trade negotiations also a trading opportunity for the stock market?
It is almost a fact that the US/China trade deal will be reached sooner rather than later. I feel that the current selloff may be an excellent short termed trading opportunity. It is quite likely that markets will remain choppy for the next week, or weeks, until the agreement appears to become more settled. Thereafter, Read More
A brief history of time, space, and Bear-o-meter signals
A few years back, I did a paper for the CSTA (Canadian Society of Technical Analysis) on my Bear-o-meter. In the paper, I noted signals of the Bear-o-meter where there was a change from the “bullish zone” – which is a reading of 5 or higher- into “Bearish” zone – which is 2 or lower. Read More
Got junk?
My friend Brooke Thackray writes a newsletter that ties his macro technical views into seasonal plays. Brooke, for those who don’t know him, is one of the original people in Canada to study seasonal trends. In fact, I met Brooke some 20 years ago after I read his first book – Time In – Time Read More
Bear-o-meter reads bullish!
Before getting into this month’s Bear-o-meter reading and interpretation, I thought I would quote Larry McDonald – who’s institutional research reports I have been subscribing to for several years. Larry’s research isn’t cheap, but he’s one of the more accurate analysts on the street. His background as head junk bond trader at Lehman’s (which was Read More
First, the good news…
. Let’s get right to the point on today’s market analysis. The good news regarding stock market indices is: The SPX, DJIA and NAZDAQ are all ahead of their 200 days SMA’s All three of the indices are approaching their old highs – they are close enough to expect that test point to occur shortly Read More