I’ve been ranting on (and on…) about the over valued tech stocks, and their effect on the market for several months now. True, my rantings made me appear misled, as the market raged on (and on). I even recently cautioned a friend that the timing (not the concept) of buying index ETF’s at this time Read More
Who is Ralph Mellish, and what does he have to do with the stock market?
I was a teenager in the 1970’s. As a normal teen of that era, I devoted a certain amount of time to worshiping the greatest Rock n’ Roll legends of all time (Beatles, Led Zeppelin, Rush, Guess Who and of course Pink Floyd, Yes, Genesis and other prog rock legends). Ironically, the Rolling Stones were Read More
Market musings
A number of talking points today. Lets drop the preamble, and get right down to it. My conclusions are at the bottom. The market ain’t cheap: Currently, the S&P 500 trades at 29.4 trailing earnings – as seen on the chart below. Its at 25.9 x current year estimates, and finally, at 20.5 x 2021 Read More
Bear-o-meter suggests higher risk conditions
Last months Bear-o-meter read neutral. The reading of “4” on July 2nd put the score at an even distribution between risk and reward potential. Most of the time, the Bear-o-meter reads somewhere in the neutral zone between 3-5. Turns out that was a decent call, given the fact that the market headed higher that month, Read More
Have your cake & eat it too in an overbought market
Above is the YTD performance numbers (end July 2020) for most of the major indices, courtesy Invesco. The equity market standouts are the SPX, the NASDAQ, and Shanghai. Gold has been the biggest mover of the non-equity categories. One might wonder why the Dow Industrial Index had such a negative return in light of Read More
Investor sentiment reaching a dangerous level again
The basis of sentiment studies is that when too many investors – particularly retail investors – are bullish, its a contrary signal suggesting things are overbought/ due for an eventual pullback of some sort. Conversely, when too many investors are bearish, its a contrary signal suggesting the market has sold off too much from pessimism, Read More
“Price is what you pay, value is what you get”- Warren Buffet
This is a technical analysis site, colored with the occasional tidbit of fundamental analysis/ political policy/ world policy view where I deem it useful. I usually like to concentrate on the technical view, given my personal history and expertise in that subject. Lets look at some technical and fundamentals surrounding the growth vs. value market Read More
Is post-crash rally-volume telling us something?
Just a couple of thoughts today folks. Just back from a week away at the cottage, and way behind in my work. First thought: While we all know that the summer can bring with it lower trading volumes as institutions, traders and retail investors take a break – its important to note that the Read More
Bear-o-meter reads…boring!
The Bear-o-meter read a cautious “2” last month. That reading on June 9th turned out to be a decent reading, given the volatility we have seen since then. The arrow on the SPX chart below shows the date of that reading. Well, here we are a month later, having lived through a “too close Read More
More market musings
Lately I’ve been posting the odd blog with musings and thoughts of my own, and some drawn from various outside sources. This blog follows that pattern. Note that its less narrative, and more “clipped”–I’m trying to feed you with lots of interesting points where real opportunities might reside, without too much of my own noise Read More