Its no surprise to see the S&P 500 pull back a bit. On Wednesday of last week, I noted that the ValueTrend Bear-o-meter was on the cusp of moving into bearish territory. Here’s the blog. Further evidence for a correction: If you look at the chart below, you’ll note that 2800 was a key Read More
Bear-o-meter bewilderment
Funny situation, this. I took a Bear-o-meter reading today (Wed. June 13). The indicators read as follows: Primary & secondary trend (200 day, 50 day SMA): Bullish Breadth (AD line, Dow Theory): Bullish Breadth momentum (New high/low, % stocks over 50 day SMA): Neutral PE ratio: Neutral Sentiment (Smart/Dumb, VIX, Put/Call): Bearish—with one possible Read More
Is this the real life, or is this just fantasy?
Regular readers know I refer to 1970’s and 1980’s rock lyrics periodically to inspire my blog topics. Today’s blog is brought to you by Queens hit song “Bohemian Rhapsody“. The song begins by asking if this is the real life, or is it just fantasy… I might ask the same about the stock market. Much Read More
Buy & hold vs. technical trading
Before I forget, here is last week’s BNN show. A reader emailed me directly and asked me to give an honest appraisal on the pluses and minuses of using a more active approach such as we at ValueTrend do. This blog is an edited version of my response to his question. What’s the Read More
Bear-o-meter goes bearish
I did the full-blown Bear-o-meter reading today, and it came out bearish. The current reading is a “2”. As a refresher: The compilation assigns “points” to a number of different factors. If a factor is bullish, it can get a +1 or at most a +2 reading. If its bearish it can get a -1. Read More
This will be my sell trigger
I expect to reduce some equity exposure based on seasonality trends in the next 1-2 weeks. However, that selling process will be limited to 10-15% of the equities we hold within the ValueTrend Equity Platform. A more serious sell signal is my hard and fast sell rule of “a lower low and break of the Read More
That’s more like it!
I noted through several blogs in 2017 that the runaway upward trending market was unsustainable – and dangerous. This almost complete lack of volatility in the stock markets was a dangerous pattern, likely to end with a thud . I have also noted on this blog that markets historically go through periods of volatility after Read More
Bear-o-meter bullish indicators
The ValueTrend Bear-o-meter has moved up one point to read 7/8 on the risk reward scale. This implies that the reward potential on the market currently outweighs risk, on a relative basis. Of course, readers who follow my blog regularly know that risk and reward are simultaneously present on the markets – but there are Read More
Here’s one positive indication on current markets
Nice reversal on yesterday’s trading action (Wed. April 4th). That looked a lot like a bullish engulfing candle to me. Add that occurrence to the recent signal coming from many sentiment indicators, as discussed below. Sentimentrader.com has an incredible collection of sentiment indicators, shown with a fair amount of back tested history on those indicators. Read More
It’s the end of the world, as we know it
By now, readers know that I sometimes draw inspiration from classic rock n’ roll for my blogs. I went to high school during the 1970’s – the era that inspired the greatest rock legends of all time (with thanks to the 1950-60’s ground breakers like Elvis, The Beatles, and the Stones). Although not from the Read More