In about 2 months, we enter into the best six months “buy” season. Officially, it arrives about the end of October/early November, but you can get a buy point any time between August and early November. Some sectors are affected by seasonal trends to a greater degree than others. As the “worst six months” season Read More
Three themes for the second half
My market outlook for the coming months is relatively neutral. At ValueTrend, we tend to follow some reliable factors when assessing potential market strength. None of our quantitative factors suggest a massively overbought or overvalued market. Still, we don’t see an undervalued market either. Here are the three themes we feel are going to be Read More
Earnings beats dont mean the market will rise
On my last blog, I noted some of the reasons why the markets might take a breather over the next two months. Today, I read another potential reason why the market might struggle over the near term. According to sentimentrader, markets tend to do well immediately after a period of below average earnings –ie, where Read More
Comfortably numb
This blog is a recap of a client update that we are sending out. I thought it would be of use to you for some forward strategy pondering. BTW – if you don’t already subscribe, our newsletter is sent out once or twice a month. It’s a recap of our client update, ex the Read More
First, the good news…
The good news I read with great interest a recent report from my favorite market statistician, Jason Goepfert (www.sentimentrader.com). Jason points out that the Dow Jones Industrial Average—which we have data on going back to the late 1800’s, has seen only 26 times where the market has experienced similar conditions as of late. That is, Read More
TSX may be nearing an entry point
I’m posting this blog today (Friday Feb 2nd) in lieu of Monday’s usual blog. I’m on BNN on Monday at 5:30 pm EST (see bottom of this blog for details) and wanted to get a blog out prior to that appearance. Hope you can catch the show. The TSX is guided by a concentration in Read More
How long can this keep going on?
The 1970’s group ACE wrote a hit song from which I borrowed today’s title. Here’s a video of that song, which may bring back a few memories. Below is a chart of the Dow Industrials since 1900. We’re looking at 117+ years of data on this chart – certainly representative of the greater portion of Read More
How quickly we forget
Humans are myopic by nature. Market participants move in tandem through waves of cautious optimism, to irrational buying exuberance, to speculation – and then reverse direction into doubt, and ultimately sheer panic selling. A commonality of the irrational exuberance (topping stage) and the panic (crash) stage are the attitudes of market participants. A common rally Read More
A case for midcaps
A friend in the industry who isn’t as analytical about the markets as I am (which is often a way better way to live!!!!) asked me for my opinion on this obviously overbought market. I relayed to him some of the comments I made in this blog about the lack of corrections, and in this blog Read More
Armchair Elliott Wave
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) gives us a rough map of where we are in the investment cycle. It’s kind of like looking at a globe. You can identify the country and the region and perhaps even find a major nearby city that approximates your location on a globe. However, a globe is pretty useless at Read More