I follow the loonie closely for two reasons. Our ValueTrend Equity Platform is almost 1/3rd invested in US denominated equities. So a move in the loonie vs. the USD affects our performance. In fact, one of the factors that offset the good markets in the VT equity platform in 2017 was the big move by Read More
Sentiment speaks: looking for buy/sell clues
Anyone who follows sentiment studies will know that crowd sentiment is considered a contrarian indicator. When “everyone” loves a market or security –it’s time to sell. Conversely, if “everyone” hates it—it might be time to buy. Baron Rothschild once said that the time to buy is when the blood is running in the street. That’s Read More
Crowded trades
“Markets are well-known for herding and that’s the story at the moment. Two big crowded trades are clearly government bonds and the US dollar. And history shows that when a herd gets too big, the risk of a stampede that splinters the throng only grows.” Larry MacDonald I’m a fan of Larry MacDonald’s work. Read More
Loonie has another penny or two left in it..but not much more
Just a short blog today. As I noted back in October, I felt that the loonie would eventually get close to $0.80. Seasonally, and chart-wise, it looked very set up to get into at least the high $0.70′. Looks like its been on track to meet my objective–I’m currently observing the move top the top Read More
Chicken (USD) or egg (SPX)..which came first?
There is a relationship between the USD and the stock market. Below is a pretty long chart of the S&P 500 (red line) vs the USD (black line). It goes back to 1990. I’d like to note that the USD index displayed is that of the USD against a world basket of currencies. This is Read More
NAFTA, the TSX and the Loonie
Before we get started, I thought I’d shamelessly show off our new video from the ValueTrend website. I thought it was well done. But then again, I am just a wee bit biased! Click here to see this short video on how ValueTrend combines technical and fundamental analysis to formulate our managed process. And Read More
Three themes for the second half
My market outlook for the coming months is relatively neutral. At ValueTrend, we tend to follow some reliable factors when assessing potential market strength. None of our quantitative factors suggest a massively overbought or overvalued market. Still, we don’t see an undervalued market either. Here are the three themes we feel are going to be Read More
Short termed reprieve may be coming for the loonie, but it likely won’t last
The Canadian dollar continues to decline against the USD. I’ve noted many times before that I am bearish on the loonie, having posted an accurate prediction that we would see a decline in our currency over the summer here. I’ve also posted the backdrop behind my weak outlook for the loonie. On this blog, Read More
Loonie’s northern journey ends soon
Loons fly north from their southern retreats as spring approaches. So too do Canadian retiree’s known as “snowbirds”. The Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the “loonie”, follows that same desire to fly north as the weather begins to warm. Our friend Jon Vialoux over at www.equityclock.com presents this seasonal chart for the CDN$. Notice how Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More