My market outlook for the coming months is relatively neutral. At ValueTrend, we tend to follow some reliable factors when assessing potential market strength. None of our quantitative factors suggest a massively overbought or overvalued market. Still, we don’t see an undervalued market either. Here are the three themes we feel are going to be Read More
Short termed reprieve may be coming for the loonie, but it likely won’t last
The Canadian dollar continues to decline against the USD. I’ve noted many times before that I am bearish on the loonie, having posted an accurate prediction that we would see a decline in our currency over the summer here. I’ve also posted the backdrop behind my weak outlook for the loonie. On this blog, Read More
Loonie’s northern journey ends soon
Loons fly north from their southern retreats as spring approaches. So too do Canadian retiree’s known as “snowbirds”. The Canadian dollar, affectionately known as the “loonie”, follows that same desire to fly north as the weather begins to warm. Our friend Jon Vialoux over at www.equityclock.com presents this seasonal chart for the CDN$. Notice how Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More
They must be loonie!
The chart below, which I have posted on this blog before, shows you a trading zone that the loonie gets stuck in once in a while. Take a look at the adherence of that trading zone by the loonie after the 2008/9 crash, again in 2015, and again since July of last year. It likes Read More
How to lose your money as quickly as possible
As some of you may know, I’m kind of an old dog in this industry. Despite my “young” 56 years of age (ha!) – I started as an Investment Advisor at 28 years of age – in 1990. It’s now been 28 years of industry experience – exactly half of my life! Prior to that, Read More
Investing in Europe—not as straight forward as you’d think
Before we get started, here is my BNN show from Monday. Should investors buy into the high flying European stock markets? The iShares European stock ETF (IEV-US) clearly broke out recently. There’s no overhead resistance ahead of it—the coast is clear for more upside. It’s a bit overbought and may pull back from here, Read More
Loonie flies south again
Canadian loon’s wisely leave my cottage every year around this time of the year to fly south. If I could hitch a ride, I would. The Canadian loonie looks like it has begun its trip south, too. After flying south to below $0.70 in early 2017, the loonie had risen back to $0.83 on hopes Read More
Bitcoin is more than a “Bit” overbought
Bitcoin may indeed be the next currency. It may replace all forms of money or credit that we are familiar with. That aside, things can often get a wee “bit” (get it? Ok, its weak) overdone in any security that has caught the markets’ attention. Gold, oil, tech stocks, mining, condo development, tulips. These have Read More
Where will gold go from here?
Above is a chart of gold that I’ve kept on my screens for a while. The triangle breakout that I noted to wait for on this blog occurred in August. It’s now hit its first level of resistance that I had noted on that blog via the dashed green line. As mentioned on that Read More