The challenge: everyone’s onboard the same train The most crowded trades in the recent bull market have been: US stock market in general US growth, in particular US dollars US Treasuries Large-caps & tech giants. Larry McDonald of Beartraps suggests that the deflationary environment over the past decade has helped all these trades. He suggests Read More
8 Canadian predictions, how to protect and profit from them
OK, so off the start, a heads up that this blog can be considered political. Don’t read it if you hate political rants. Don’t bother posting “arguments” below. I am not going to post them or respond to them. Write your own blog on your political view instead. Having said that – its not a Read More
The Canadian Elephant
Before getting to today’s prime subject, the US’s ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) came out lower in the latest report, albeit “less bad” than expected. It’s early into the economic cycle, and the impact by the virus will certainly push this and other economic indicators go from “less bad” to “more bad” over time. Sentimentrader Read More
Real Estate is weakening
Canadian real estate appears to be on the verge of rolling over. I couldn’t get a TSX Real Estate Composite chart from stockcharts.com, so I have copy/pasted a chart from my Thomson Reuters system below. Note the lower highs and lows on the weekly chat, and the current flirtation with the 200 day (40 week) Read More
Why you should watch the bond market if you own higher dividend stocks
I did a late night webinar for the Whiterock Shareholders club in BC last night. One question that came up was my outlook on Canadian bonds. The Canadian bond outlook is rather important for investors who play the TSX. That’s because the TSX is concentrated in a few sectors that are largely bought by retail Read More
Will Canadian energy break out?
I was on Bloomberg/BNN’s Market call last Friday at noon. One discussion that came up was the outlook for Canadian oil. After four years of ignoring the importance of the Canadian oil scene, imposing carbon taxes, and no support for pipelines, the PM of Canada has apparently pulled his head out of his water box. Read More
Small capped setups
US small capped stocks may be on the verge of breaking out. The ishares Small capped Russell 2000 index ETF has been range bound since late 2018. That is, the Russell has been unable to put in a materially significant high since then. Meanwhile, the larger capped SPX index has been putting in higher highs Read More
The troubled TSX
The trouble with the TSX index is that it is a concentrated index. In truth, that’s because the Canadian market is a concentrated market economy. For instance, the TSX 300 index holds: 32% weighing in financials. 16% is in energy….We’re talking almost 50% of the index in just 2 sectors!!! After that…Industrials and minerals come Read More
TSX Outlook
The TSX has shown signs of life this year. That’s because oil, despite its pullback over the past couple of weeks from $65-ish into the high $50’s, has rallied from its $45 low in December. As well, we’ve seen a bit of strength in defensive stocks like utilities telecoms and REIT’s this year. Normally, one Read More
Trapped in a box
The SPX 500 and the TSX 300 indices seem to be trapped in boxes. The SPX is yet again testing its ceiling in the mid 2900’s. So too is the TSX as it struggles to blow through the mid 16,000’s. Both indices show an amazing commonality of divergences between the return to these old Read More