Anyone who follows sentiment studies will know that crowd sentiment is considered a contrarian indicator. When “everyone” loves a market or security –it’s time to sell. Conversely, if “everyone” hates it—it might be time to buy. Baron Rothschild once said that the time to buy is when the blood is running in the street. That’s Read More
Crowded trades
“Markets are well-known for herding and that’s the story at the moment. Two big crowded trades are clearly government bonds and the US dollar. And history shows that when a herd gets too big, the risk of a stampede that splinters the throng only grows.” Larry MacDonald I’m a fan of Larry MacDonald’s work. Read More
Got junk?
My friend Brooke Thackray writes a newsletter that ties his macro technical views into seasonal plays. Brooke, for those who don’t know him, is one of the original people in Canada to study seasonal trends. In fact, I met Brooke some 20 years ago after I read his first book – Time In – Time Read More
Rotation of the guard?
Given the correction we seem to be getting – which was indicated as likely on my blog last week – I thought I’d look at the major US sectors to see how the defensive names are doing. That is, how the utilities and staples, might be faring. Sometimes you will see an initial move into Read More
James Bond. Licence to kill?
Who’s your favorite James bond actor? For me, it’s a close three way tie between Sean Connery (of course!), Pierce Bronson, and Daniel Craig. Not sure who’d I’d have to say my favorite was or is – each has merit. This summer, we get to see a new Bond movie with Daniel Craig AND Read More
What to hold when stocks fall
A bear market can be identified by the break in some technical parameters, as I have discussed in my book Sideways (lower lows, lower highs, a break of the 200 day SMA). Adding to the evidence of a break in trend, your analysis may also been aided by observing the negative correlation of some other Read More
US bonds rolling over, Canadian bonds questionable
After a summer of relatively good performance, the US long bond looks to be breaking down. We sold our 5% position in this sector on the expectation that risk is now greater then reward potential. Seasonals end in early October for bonds, but it was the chart that gave us the nudge out of the Read More
Don’t ignore the long bond uptrend
The US long bond, as illustrated by the $USB 30 year bond price chart below is still trading within the bullish trend channel that its been contained to since 1990. I got into this business in 1990, and my formative years were spend sitting beside a former pro bond trader from Sri Lanka. Hiran was Read More
Short termed trading opportunities
I don’t do a lot of short term trading. But on occasion, I like to look at the odd opportunity that seems to offer a decent upside for a neartermed price swing. When you are looking for a short termed move, you can play counter-trend swings. You don’t have to be looking for the base Read More
Bonds may be setting up for a good summer trade
Seasonal studies suggest bonds are strongest over the summer months. The Long US treasury ETF (TLT) looks interesting at this point. It’s been basing between $116 and $122. Meanwhile, momentum studies are diverging bullishly- momentum is rising despite a sideways pattern. Moneyflow (top and bottom panes) is slowly turning around after the big selloff last Read More