Bicycling and the Bear-o-meter

 

If you read the MoneyLetter, you may appreciate a 2-part column I am in the  process of writing for that publication. The columns outline how an investor might design a trading system. In the articles, I illustrate the process that we at ValueTrend utilize in buying and selling stocks. Briefly, the key elements of a trading strategy are:

  1. Broad market phase analysis
  2. Individual sector and stock  phase analysis
  3. Fundamental analysis
  4. Position size rules
  5. Sell rules.

I’ll post the articles to the ValueTrend website (www.valuetrend.ca) over the next 2 months after they are published. If you wish to read them earlier, I might suggest subscribing to the Moneyletter service. I think it’s less than $40 for a trial  subscription (http://adviceforinvestors.com/the-money-letter/).

 

The reason I bring this up is because I view success in any endeavor as available only to those who apply  a structured, systematic discipline. For example, I am an amateur competitive cyclist. Racing bikes is different than one who pursues bicycling for general fitness and entertainment. My routine as a racing cyclist involves specific types of (often) intense riding on specific days of the week. I have been fortunate to train with one of the top amateur competitive cyclists in Ontario. Dave (my friend) has been a competitive cyclist for most of his life. At 64 years of age, Dave still wins or places very highly at open cycling events, often, if not usually, beating top-notch competitors who are 1/3rd his age. Dave overcomes his “age barriers” through the most disciplined approach to training and science that I know of. Food intake, bike positioning, structured training intervals, recovery methods and a scientific approach to every conceivable (natural) edge that Dave can utilize are part of his lifestyle. Dave is a machine. Although I am not in his athletic category, I have learned much from Dave regarding structure and discipline in cycling.

 

 

Similarly, my prognosis on the markets is a structured one. Like Dave, I incorporate elements of analysis that I have found to be successful in investing (although not infallible). And like Dave, I am always studying my trade to look for another edge.

 

The Bear-o’meter is a quick-glance tool that I created 2 years ago for use within my macro-market analysis (step 1, above). It incorporates 6 high-confidence indicators that measure market risk vs. potential reward at any given time. I post the Bear-o-meter periodically on this blog—notably when there is a shift from one of the three zones (Bearish, Neutral, Bullish). This is one of those times. My Bear-o-meter index has moved from bearish/neutral throughout the summer to neutral/ bullish as of today. The indicators show as:
bearometer 5

Breadth: bullish

Seasonality: bullish

Relative fundamental value: bearish

Momentum: neutral

Trend: bullish

Sentiment: bullish

 

All in, the Bear-o-meter reads as 5, or neutral/bullish at this time. This is up from 2 in September—which was a bearish reading. Back then, sentiment and seasonality were bearish – bringing the level into its questionable zone.   While this indicator is not a short termed one, the Bear-o-meter is currently suggesting that conditions are ripe for a continuation of the bull market. This suggests that, despite short termed corrections, all lights are green for stock investors with a time horizon of more than a few months.

 

bike florida

Upcoming events with Keith Richards

 

BNN “MarketCall Tonight” this Friday November 7, 2014 at 6:00pm

Phone in with your questions on technical analysis for Keith during the show. CALL TOLL-FREE 1-855-326-6266. Or email your questions ahead of time (specify they are for Keith) to [email protected]

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4 Comments

  • Hi Keith,

    i have a TA question for you please! Have you ever heard of the TA pattern called “mirror image”?? this pattern apparently looks like a head and shoulder pattern (or an inverse head and shoulder pattern) and ACTS like a head and shoulder pattern (or the inverse head/ shoulder) but yet is called a “mirror image” instead! Have you ever heard of this pattern?? and if you have, then can you please explain to me why this is called a “mirror image” pattern instead of just a head and shoulder (or an inverse head and shoulder)??

    Thank you so much Keith!! I look forward to your reply 🙂

    Eve

    Reply
    • Never heard of it Eve
      But please don’t forget–naming a formation is much less important than noting if its a top or bottom phase. The fact that we no longer make higher highs and lows in an uptrend means its a topping formation. No longer making lower lows and highs means its a base bottom potential.

      Reply
    • Thanks Keith! Yes, I agree with you re the “name” of something – but the person who wrote about this is a person who does a lot of TA (just like i do as well- I’m well known on Don V’s site 😉 – though I no longer post there)- and I recently posted (on a trading board) about a head and shoulder formation on the 5 day hourly chart for a stock – and this other TA person posted it as a “mirror image” pattern – mirror image I’m sure to the inverse head and shoulder pattern this stock just completed as of yesterday- but nonetheless, I’ve never heard of a “mirror image” pattern – so, i wanted to come to a well known TA person to ask about such a pattern- and you gave me that answer Keith – so, thank you 🙂

      Thank you Keith 🙂 look forward to watching you on BNN on Friday 🙂

      Eve

      Reply
      • Sometimes people like to impress with fancy names or knowledge. Pragmatically, I just want to identify the opportunity so I can make money or avoid loss.

        Reply

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