Long termed readers of this blog will be familiar with my “Ask me Anything” special edition blogs. These blogs allow you to post your Technical Analysis questions, and I post a few follow up blogs to answer the questions. This one is an “Ask US anything blog. I’ve asked Craig Aucoin, who co-manages our Managed platforms to step in to answer any questions pertaining to economic or fundamental analysis issues. Today, you can ask ValueTrend to answer your questions on the markets!
This time, the questions will be be answered in a video format. As always, the transcript of the video will appear below the episode, so those who like to read rather than watch can do so.
Important–I am going to repeat this twice, as I always get somebody who didn’t catch this part:
IF YOU ARE A SUBSCRIBER, DON’T HIT REPLY ON YOUR EMAIL TO ASK YOUR QUESTION. YOU MUST GO TO THE WEBSITE (www.valuetrend.ca). POST THE QUESTION UNDER COMMENTS FOR THIS BLOG.
OK – here are the ground rules for the “Ask us” blogs:
- WIDE INTEREST: Investment questions should be of broad interest to many investors. They can involve broad-sector questions, questions about various international markets, or questions about commodities or bonds.
- NO INDIVIDUAL STOCKS: Please don’t ask about individual stocks. This isn’t Keith’s BNN show. The exception might be in massively followed mega-cap stocks like the AI stocks – but we’ll probably talk about the group rather than one single name. Better to ask about stock sectors, world markets, asset classes, commodities, etc. For example: Cannabis, gold, European markets, the utilities sector, the tech sector, oil, transports, long bonds, etc. Lets say you are interested in the banks. Ask about the US banking sector rather than Bank of America.
- DUMB QUESTIONS: You can ask as simple a question as you wish. And don’t worry – there’s no such thing as a dumb question! But feel free to ask the hard stuff too! We’ll do our best to get as many questions covered as we can. One question per reader, only.
- EDUCATIONAL QUESTIONS: Questions on technical analysis methods and contrarian investing are very welcome. Eg.: You might have questions on technical/fundamental analysis rules, or unique strategies like hedging or stop loss rules, etc. Questions on fundamental analysis are also very welcome, as are broad economic issues.
- YOU MUST POST YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENT SECTION OF THIS BLOG AND NO OTHER BLOG. DO NOT EMAIL US. DO NOT ASK A QUESTION BY HITTING REPLY IF YOU ARE A SUBSCRIBER!!!! POST A COMMENT HERE ONLY.
Thanks, and we look forward to reading your questions! We’ll do the video next week and post it first week of October.
20 Comments
You’ve done such a nice job on keeping us up to speed on energy …. it’s time for something different ….. Let’s go with insurance …. MFC, GWO, SLF etc….. Your thoughts are always appreciated
Hi Keith, do you or Craig use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports data to inform you of any possible trade setups in the commodities sector? If so, could you explain how you use it?
Thanks!
Hi Keith,
Can you please comment on 1) where you see XLE or XEG.TO pulling back to for the next decent entry long opportunity (if you have not recently commented on this);
2) Can you comment on the uranium ETF URA in terms of a level to look to enter if one is not already long (uranium stocks have been on fire for some months now).
Thank you,
Mike
TA Question: On your recent video about global market, you analyzed EWD chart as in consolidation and good for a range trade. However, trying to apply what I’ve learned from your class, it looks more like a in downtrend with a lower-high in mid-July and a lower-low now (last low was June-end). So it looks like the trend is broken. What am I missing in the theory? Am I anticipating a downtrend that has not been confirmed? Thanks for your teaching!
can you cover the future for marijuanna stocks
thanks
In your book you talk about the 3&3 rule. Can you please elaborate on the volume expectation of the strategy during the 3 days.
Thanks
Hi Keith,
Some thing that many of your audience may like to know.
Can you share some interesting web sites that we should always keep an eye on or look at, in order to see marketing pulse?
Thank you and keep up the good work.
Marc
Hi Keith,
Will this market test the October 22 lows of about 3600 in the SPY or in the QQQ in the next year?
Dividend Stocks & stockcharts.com
Hi Keith,
This week, I was planning to buy BCE at its prior support of ~$54.75. I had alert set at 55, which was triggered. I did a quick check of the technicals on stockcharts.com and saw that prior support was ~$53.75. I was perplexed. I checked some other chart sources and prior support was ~$54.75. Still perplexed, I reported the anomaly to stockcharts.com support.
This was their reply:
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So I tried _BCE.TO and prior support was ~54.75.
As well, BCE did go Ex Dividend September 14. The dividend was $0.968. So that was the reason for the ~$1 change in chart pricing.
So my question is: For a dividend stock, how do you deal with this anomaly, if you are trying to determine if you have technical opportunity and what your buy/sell price should be?
Hi Keith,
Somehow the reply from stockcharts.com support did not get saved.
Here it is:
Thank you for contacting us. We adjust our historical price data to remove the effects of fund distributions, dividends and stock splits from our charts. Splits, distributions and dividends are “artificial” changes in the price of a ticker symbol that create gaps on technical charts causing misleading signals from technical indicators. To eliminate those gaps, we decrease our historical prices (and increase our historical volume data) in a way that removes these misleading signals.
…
If you would like to see charts of unadjusted data,* you can add an
underscore character to the front of the stock’s normal symbol. For example, you can use “_IBM” to see unadjusted data for IBM.
Yes, this is something I learned about their service many years ago. My rule of thum is to do the underscore in higher div stocks
Hi Keith,
Thanks for offering to answer questions. I have two questions:
1) Is this the time for commercial real estate investment?
2) What about US 10 20 30 years bonds (treasuries?) are they appropriate recession protection? If so how to invest in Canadian funds?
Thank You.
Hello,
Working my way through your TA course. I am a long time Stock Charts user and have found your course useful to simplify/concentrate my charts. Over time I have added too many indicators and overlays, leading to some confusion.
In the course you mention that the maximum % for any one holding be no more than 7%, am I correct in assuming that this could result in you only having 14 positions in the portfolio (100/7 = 14.28)
I currently hold 35 positions (none over 5%) and am starting to wonder if that is too many to monitor closely?
Would appreciate your opinion
Excellent course and blog.
thanks
Michael
Hello Keith,
My question is about the analysis of price of gold on StockCharts which is the continuous contract on gold, while on Kitco the price is the spot gold bid.
There is often a huge gap between both prices, the spot gold price often trigger my sell on StockCharts.
Can you give us your opinion about that.
Thanks
1) Many inputs/commodities come out of Russia and Ukraine, and the loss of these to global supply could significantly impact prices and inflation in NA. I’m already committed to O&G, but is there a food or fertilizer play here? What do you think of NTR’s chart?
2) As you’re always guided by technicals, I know your holding periods will be dictated by that analysis. However, do you find weekly or daily candlestick charts more helpful with respect to determing support/resistance, overbought/oversold, trendlines and stages, etc.?
Thank you!
Question regarding “Sell on Stop Orders”
When placing such an order, the Ask price must be below the
current Bid price. A trade occurs when the highest Bid price
matches or exceeds the lowest Ask price. My question is
how does this not result in an immediate trade?
Hi Keith, since yield curve is uninverting (steepening)which means recession is imminent in next 12 months, do you think holding long usd government bonds 20+years is a good timing because recessions always lower yields historically ? And lastly, do you suggest hedging usd to cad with all the dedollarisation hype in the world.
thanks
Not gonna like this one Keith but here goes😅!
With fixed income ( MMFs ) paying 5+% why bother playing at the ol’ wall street casino at all…take the 5% and sleep well at night for a change!
Actually, I agree – which is why I noted that in my latest blog https://www.valuetrend.ca/lots-to-cover-today-2/
I asked the question, “Why risk your portfolio in stocks with high yields readily available?”
My answer is, in most investors case, yes, there’s less of an attraction to equities. When I say this, I mean joe- average investor – aka mutual fund/ index ETF’ers. Beyond the obvious benefits of capital gain and dividend tax incentives, their risk is going to be getting higher for the return.
Further: Buy n’ hold investors will make little in a potential sideways market, but agile technically driven investors will profit by the swings. It is my thought that we may have entered another era of decade-long sideways markets. Just finishing the new edition of my previous book Sideways, which covers that. Should be out in a few weeks.
Next: equities are not all the same. Why buy another car when my recently owned Lada was a terrible car? Well, you could buy a quality car this time….analogy similar to buy n hold vs a trading strategy. BTW–that’s why I designed my Online course – not to teach you how to make money in a bull market. Any idiot can do that. Its for the more volatile periods that you need to be agile and have a plan. But–you can certainly make more than 5% if you follow a plan. As they say, the definition of insanity is to expect different results by doing the same old thing. Buy n’ hold is dead. Stocks may be unattractive in that view. But trading, and owning hard assets, are a different strategy.
My message remains that certain areas like commodities in particular will thrive in the environment where equities fall. I STRONGLY recommend you watch my video on that subject:
https://www.valuetrend.ca/video/will-commodities-outperform-stocks-in-the-coming-years/