Its been a while, but I am happy to announce that our most popular blog topic, “Ask me anything”, is back. This is your chance to ask questions on the subject of investing, risk management, portfolio management and of course… Technical Analysis. Craig Aucoin, resident Fundamental Analyst of ValueTrend is ready to cover any “nuts n bolts” questions from his area of expertise.
To ask a question, you need to post it on the comment section of this blog by midnight Sunday March 27th.
For those who haven’t followed this blog for long – here are the ground rules for the “Ask me” blogs:
- Investment questions should be of broad interest to many investors. They can involve broad-sector questions, questions about various international markets, or questions about individual commodities or bonds.
- Please don’t ask about individual stocks. The exception might be in massively followed mega-cap stocks like the FAANG’s. Better to ask about stock sectors, world markets, asset classes, commodities, etc. For example: Cannabis, gold, European markets, the utilities sector, the tech sector, oil, transports, long bonds, etc. Lets say you are interested in the banks. Ask about the US banking sector rather than my opinion on Bank America. Or you might just have questions on technical/fundamental analysis rules, or unique strategies like hedging or stop loss rules, etc.
- You can ask as simple a question as you wish. And don’t worry – there’s no such thing as a dumb question! But feel free to ask the hard stuff too! I’ll do my best to get as many questions covered as I can. One question per reader, only.
- Questions on technical analysis methods and contrarian investing are very welcome.
- Don’t ask our opinion on the economy, real estate, employment, and other such queries. I’m a Technical Analyst, not an economist.
- If you wish to ask a fundamental analysis question, feel free to post it. Craig Aucoin, CFA, will add his answers to the mix.
Finally – We’ll probably be answering the questions over two or three blogs. The questions will be posted next week over two blogs. If your question isn’t answered next week, and assuming it meets my rule of “no individuals stocks, no economic questions”, then look for coverage of your question during the following week.
DEADLINE SUNDAY MARCH 27, 2022 (midnight)
POST YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS SECTION BELOW. DO NOT, REPEAT, DO NOT, SEND EMAILS WITH QUESTIONS. POST THEM BELOW.
SUBSCRIBERS, YOU WILL NEED TO GO TO THE INTERNET SITE TO POST YOUR QUESTIONS. DO NOT HIT “REPLY” ON YOUR EMAILED BLOG – thanks.
what do you think of XEG? still has some legs to run? thanks
I’ve read two of your books and have heard you speak. I love your enthusiasm and dedication to technical analysis. It’s very fascinating, and seems logical. However, the bottom line is performance.
How do the returns of the portfolios you manage compare to:
1. the indexes?
2. Other portfolio managers such as private banking wealth management services?
In other words, does technical analysis give and investor a measurable advantage?
Hi Keith- It appears that there will be 4 or 5 or more interest hikes coming in the next year or so. I am a senior and hoping to take this opportunity to finally get some decent yield- particularly in stripped coupon bonds and perpetual preferred shares. Some prefs have already dropped below par and are yielding over 5%. My question is; Are these rate hikes already baked in to these 2 fixed income class prices or will the prices of the these assets slowly grind down as interest rates recede over the next 6-12-18 months? In other words — buy stripped coupon bonds and perpetual prefs now or wait?
Why are charts used for technical analysis price only, not real return charts including dividends?
How to decide to buy hedged vs unhedged?
Are etfs using covered calls a good investment?
I like David’s first question.
When looking at different vendor charts (eg. Yahoo, barchart, finviz, etc) how do you incorporate dividends into evaluation?
Vendors treat them differently. You use stockcharts. Does that service include dividends in the charts?
Are there some preferred Split share Class A units that are worthwhile to hold for income?
Or they all to risky?
I have notice that you are using most of the time the weekly chart instead of the daily chart.
My question is simple: When is the best time to buy in a weekly chart?
If you buy a breakout on the Monday for example, (we only get a day calculated in the candlestick bar), I notice that the buying signal can turnaround from time to time and could turns out to be a false breakout. Is it better to wait for the following week in order to have full 5 days of trading ?
Keep up the good work, 😉
Hi Keith, you have indicated in previous blogs that it is quite possible that the ‘Big One”, a possible stock market crash or massive correction may happen later this year. Do you still think this is probable? Where do you think the market is right now at the macro level? There is a lot of chatter right now about the relationship between rapid increases in intertest rates, stagflation, recessions and the consequences for equities. Thank-you for continuing to provide your readers with your valuable market insights.
I’m curious about what is a typical day for you as a portfolio manager. Like how much time do you spend reading news, looking at charts, analyzing market and trading. Basically, what is your daily routine? I’m asking because like most of the people on this blog have a day time job and have developed their own routine so they can manage their portfolio without interfering “too much” with their job. But I always wondered how it is like to do this as a full time job… Thanks.
+1 Good question!!
Hi Keith. Do you run a regular scan in Stockcharts for identifying sector rotation and names to focus on, or is is more fundamental driven with technical indicators used for entry and exit points?
A lot is changing in the world. We’ve just gone through – and are [hopefully] coming out of – the Covid crisis; then we heard of supply chains beginning to take a toll on world economies; and now we have the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its economic impacts, the potential for globalization economic/trade flows having to undergo realignment, and other factors. Also, the China question and whether companies wish to remain there or move out. By extension, the way we work, live, do business, etc, may be undergoing broad stroke shifts. With that, my question becomes: Are you seeing any evidence that the historical (seasonal and other) trends we’ve come to rely on for technical analysis are becoming outdated? Is there any evidence that the data we rely upon regarding market cycles – which has baked within it pre-Covid historical trends – is not quite squaring as well with the markets as it was before the above mentioned upheavals?
What sectors are you and your firm looking to invest in currently?
Do you own any Bitcoin and/or related stocks/ETF’s? Do you think Bitcoin is a valid investment?
Do you ever use gold/gold stocks as a hedge in any of your portfolios? If so what percentage would you allocate.
Federal and Provincial governments are pushing EV sales.
Is there enough electric power to keep theses vehicles on the road at low costs?
Do you trade the 2X and 3X bull and bear leveraged ETFs?
How volatile (%ATR) does a stock need to be to be worthwhile short term (daily charts) trading?
Is Gann Square a useful tool to identify partial sell points?
Wondering why the Canadian dollar is not at par, or higher, with the US dollar like it was in 2011 & 2012 when the price of Oil was where it is today. Is it because Trudy has run Canada into the ground so badly and lack of foreign investment because approvals take years or never come?
In light of a radically different financial world (major war, ESG mentality, inflation, etc) what is your take on the agriculture stocks? To me this includes the fertilizers, farm equipment and food producers.
Further, if we expand this topic to include natgas/propane, would that not put Canada in a prime position going forward? Which means (maybe) a stronger Canadian dollar?
Your thoughts on this subject would be appreciated. Thank you.
Because I am feeling sorry for myself I will preface my question with the following:
When the Nasdaq went down 20% I watched a couple of well known Canadian tech stocks.
I acquired a 1% (of my portfolio) position in one of them.
The price dropped another 10% before appearing to bottom and rose gradually, I acquired another 2%.
All of one week the Nasdaq went up so I now have 12% of my portfolio in this stock. Now it’s down 5% since then.
A comment I heard was that it was a suckers rally, possibly, more precisely someone explained it was due to options expiration week.
Using options would have been less painful but I don’t fully understand them.
I find stops kick me out of positions inadvertently so I try not to use them.
Finally, my question is why do stock prices rise because of options expiration???
Whenever a stock is being added to the S&P/TSX Composite Index near quarter-end, an unusually large block of shares is traded just before the close on the previous business day – as happened on Friday, March 18 when some 9 million shares of NuVista Energy apparently changed hands, bumping the day’s trading volume from about 1.3 million to 10.5 million shares just before 4 pm. (I am not looking for an opinion on NVA, just using it as an example to illustrate this question.) Could Keith or Craig explain, please, how and why this happens – is this just some kind of index book-keeping adjustment, or are these shares (4% of NuVista’s outstanding shares) really being sold by one financial institution to another? If the latter, how and when is such a large block of shares assembled? Finally, should such one-time large volumes be included or excluded in calculating money flow indicators such as OBV (on balance volume), accumulation / distribution, or Chaikin MF? Thank you.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the Bank of America Corp indicator is flashing green for the first time since the pandemic started in March 2020. According to the report, history suggests that this buy signal could indicate an 8% rise in global equities in a 12 week period following this buy indicator. While their are a lot of conflicting sentiments floating around these days with all of the uncertainty with global affairs, I was wondering if the other indicators you follow also suggest such a strong buy signal over the next 12 weeks.
I also am curious if you sold out of your oil positions when oil broke down to $95 a barrel a short while ago. I know that you mentioned that you did sell some prior to the correction. As we are heading into a very strong month for oil in April, and as there are several other strong indicators that the price of oil will only rise into the summer, I was wondering what your current stance on oil is at this moment. Thanks