Ask me anything: Answers


  • Interesting info re the IMO vs the CRB commodity indexes. My question was more about the breakdown in the $USD and whether you think it will continue and as a result cause continued upward pressure for the commodities in general. The CRB (IMO even better) just being a gauge.

    What I see is Oil, copper, and even gold are all in uptrends. Natgas and silver have been going sideways on weekly charts but Natgas has had a strong rally recently and is in an uptrend on the daily chart at present. Lumber is in a really nice uptrend as are some ag related.

    The USD peaked in Jan 2017 and has been going lower since. Commods in general (CRB/IMO) have only started up-trending in Aug/Sept 2017.


    • Hi Ron
      Yes, oil is now in an uptrend, as is copper. Gold – if you look at weekly charts–is still very much stuck in a holding pattern. It desperately needs to bust 1360-1400 area that has contained it since mid 2013.
      So yes, the USD is weak and has moved right down to the intersection of important support levels and a trendline. If it breaks much more, I think there is another 4-5% downside left for the USD vs. the world currency basket. So we shall see.
      Meanwhile, I do like commodities and oil in particular. Nat Gas, per your observation, needs to break out but it looks very well set up to do so. I am keeping an eye on it for sure.

  • I keep hearing that the interest sensitives are being sold off, yet the REITs (i.e. XRE or even better the ZRE) are breaking out. What do you think is causing this? Time to buy?

    • ZRE is breaking out, but XRE is still stuck in the giant symmetrical triangle its been forming for 2 years.
      Not sure of the relationship of REITS to the other interest sensitive stocks like utilities. there is a real estate element in there for REIT’s, and that might be the difference.
      As far as buying–well, a breakout is a breakout!

  • Hi Keith: end of 2018 on bnn you indicated you were watching the next few trading days to decide if you would be buying into the market or accumulating cash. What way did you go

    • Hi Glenn
      I held 12% cash or so at that point. I decided to hold off spending it, given that we were nearly 90% in anyhow–yesterday we raised a bit more cash so now we are closer to 20%. The reason for that is that we are getting closer to a “sell signal” on my neartermed timing model. It needs another 1-2% rally on the market to complete the 3 indicators lining up, but that’s close enough–basically the odds are in favor of a pullback shortly, so I am inclined not to buy, but to sell a bit, then buy back in a retracement –the level at which will be dictated by the neartermed indicator.


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