A blog about nothing, or everything

Comic genius  Jerry Seinfeld created what may be the most popular sitcom of all time. I’m a mega fan – having watched the entire series more times than I care to admit. His show was “about nothing”, according to the description. Yet, it covered so many cultural and interpersonal topics with critical absurdity. It was really a show “about everything”. Today’s blog is one of my random clips and thoughts topics. Its a blog about nothing. Or everything. Depends on how you look at it!

Friday’s Fed-funds Future projections by Wallstreet

June Fed Fund Future-0.25 report on Friday means 25bp lower than the current Fed Funds rate, I.e. the current consensus is for a 100% chance of a 25bp cut. Source: BearTraps

POWELL last week: “WE’RE NOT FAR FROM CONFIDENCE TO CUT RATES”

Data driving this view includes the 3 months of declining household employment:

Three things David Rosenberg wants us to know about today’s stock market

1. We are back to 2000 bubble highs of 30% when it comes to the Tech share of market
capitalization. Concentration risk is getting worse, not better.

2. The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 index to the cap-weighted index is back to where it was in the 2009 and 2020 recessions and bear markets.

3. Some pundits have made the point that the structure of the stock market is completely
different than it was in past decades — that we have moved from an industrial economy
to a digital economy. Okay. I buy that. But the next argument, that one cannot therefore
compare valuations to the past, doesn’t fly even with the shifting composition of GDP
and the S&P 500.
The reality is that only two of the nine S&P 500 sectors are trading below their historical P/E
multiple averages — Energy and Real Estate.

When the rats start abandoning the building…

Both rats and mice, in the 16th century, were said to have the ability to know when a structure was on the verge of collapse, and would accordingly decamp some time before this happened.

Nvidia Insider Selling

JUST ASKING…NVDA  directors unloaded $180M in stock last few days according to filing, planned – scheduled?

Better late than never, I guess…

I’m on record via my annual rant blogs since December 23, 2015 for accurately predicting the level of destruction Liberal government financial and social policies would have on Canada. Way, way before the crowd jumped on the anti-Trudeau bandwagon, I was speaking out – and getting flack for it!!! People couldn’t see through the handsome looks and “sunny ways”. Although I’m no longer alone in my observations, its unusual to hear an analyst with a major Canadian bank be open and brash about the current Canadian government. I was with a major bank firm for many years before privatizing ValueTrend. I can tell you that the level of censorship and restrictions on bank employees is large. Yet, Derek Holt, VP & head of capital markets economics for Scotiabank has been openly bashing the idiocy of government financial policies:

“I’m deeply worried about public policy in my country. Productivity is in a tailspin. A greater share of GDP is spent on here-today-gone-tomorrow current spending by governments and households than in decades. Tax policy is uncompetitive. Business bashing has become commonplace among people who’ve never spent two seconds working in private industry.”

Gold’s breakout: How to play it

My new video on gold, where I cover producers and bullion, is now out. Here’s the link:

The Gold Breakout – ValueTrend

2 Comments

  • Hi Keith I went to Mexico for 2 weeks in the later half of February and read both of the books lots of great advise in there. I have a question for you, when a stock is trending sideways for a long time
    I have noticed that when the 50 day MA crosses the 200 day MA up and down is either a great time to buy or sell. Actually just before if anticipate it correctly. Is this something that in your opinion
    Could be used to time trades. If you bring up a daily chart of FVI.to 2 year chart shows it well many other stocks I own have the same pattern. Cheers Rick

    Reply
    • Rick–its not a bad tool, but still, on an up down pattern like FVI or so many others, you will find the 50/200 cross to be a bit lagging. Personally, I find quicker momentum indicators like stochastics a better indicator to confirm. Or, you could shorten the duration on these two moving averages. Try different periods to see which combination lines up best with reversals (up or down) in price–and again, throw in a momentum oscillator
      If you look at the search engine for my blog–type in “neartermed timing system”. There you will find a little system I put together for the type of trading you are doing. Essentially–Bollinger Band touches, RSI signals and Stochastics signals. Again, you can play with the look-back periods on these to fit your specific security you are trading. But I have found these 3 indicators pretty predictive for neartermed moves when they line up.

      Reply

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